Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.
AIER’s own index posted its largest gain since June, but gains were largely cancelled out by moderation in other categories. Inflation pressures seem to be shifting rather than surging, with gradual disinflation still the dominant trend.
Our proprietary index barely budged at the end of 2025, but the underlying mix stayed active. Prices are still uneven: rising food categories offset declines in fuel.
While official CPI data remain distorted, the inflation trend appears to be losing momentum across both goods and services.
Our proprietary index climbed for the tenth month in a row in September 2025, but there are clear signs that price pressures are finally subsiding.
Sticky service costs, moderating but still-present tariff effects, and a softening labor market combine to put pressure on the Fed.
After a third delay of China tariffs, rising prices, delayed policy effects, and a weakening job market make the Fed’s path to rate cuts uncertain.
A recent surge in everyday costs is closely tied to import-heavy categories now facing steep tariffs from China and Mexico.
Disinflationary momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Tariff risks and corporate pricing warnings persist.
Tariffs pushed some prices up in April, but falling service costs and an uncertain outlook make the inflation picture much murkier.
Official CPI suggests moderating inflation, but our in-house index clocks the largest increase in 13 months. Affordability will worsen with the outbreak of war with Iran.
AIER’s own index posted its largest gain since June, but gains were largely cancelled out by moderation in other categories. Inflation pressures seem to be shifting rather than surging, with gradual disinflation still the dominant trend.
Our proprietary index barely budged at the end of 2025, but the underlying mix stayed active. Prices are still uneven: rising food categories offset declines in fuel.
While official CPI data remain distorted, the inflation trend appears to be losing momentum across both goods and services.
Our proprietary index climbed for the tenth month in a row in September 2025, but there are clear signs that price pressures are finally subsiding.
Sticky service costs, moderating but still-present tariff effects, and a softening labor market combine to put pressure on the Fed.
After a third delay of China tariffs, rising prices, delayed policy effects, and a weakening job market make the Fed’s path to rate cuts uncertain.
A recent surge in everyday costs is closely tied to import-heavy categories now facing steep tariffs from China and Mexico.
Disinflationary momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Tariff risks and corporate pricing warnings persist.
Tariffs pushed some prices up in April, but falling service costs and an uncertain outlook make the inflation picture much murkier.
By submitting this form, you are consenting to receive marketing emails from: The Daily Economy. You can revoke your consent to receive emails at any time by using the SafeUnsubscribe® link, found at the bottom of every email. Emails are serviced by Constant Contact