Monetary Economics
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Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
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Why Economists Leave Government Spending Out of Inflation Measures
The CPI captures the rising cost of private consumption while leaving the rising cost of government consumption out of the equation.
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The Price of Fed Silence
When the Fed withholds information, markets don’t stop searching — they simply reward those with privileged access.
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July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
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The Lesson of 1971 Was Never About Gold
President Nixon abandoned the gold standard. The deeper problem was a monetary system dependent on political judgment.
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Japan’s Debt Crisis Is a Global Warning
Japan can watch debt-service costs consume its budget, or suppress rates and risk inflation. Decades of borrowing have eliminated the easy options.
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One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
June’s PCE report showed prices falling as energy prices retreated, but underlying inflation and nominal spending remain too strong.
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Standing Still as Inflation Runs Hot
Markets, monetary policy rules, and three Fed governors all pointed toward another rate increase. The committee chose to wait instead.
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The Fed Is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged this week, the September meeting will take on added importance.
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June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.
-
•
Bessent vs. Druckenmiller: Bond Vigilantes versus Bond Bureaucrats
Investors are testing the Treasury’s pain threshold. By suppressing yield signals, bond bureaucrats may summon the very bond vigilantes they hope to suppress.
-
•
Why Economists Leave Government Spending Out of Inflation Measures
The CPI captures the rising cost of private consumption while leaving the rising cost of government consumption out of the equation.
-
•
The Price of Fed Silence
When the Fed withholds information, markets don’t stop searching — they simply reward those with privileged access.
-
•
July Inflation Rises, But Weakening Labor Complicates Fed’s Choice
The Fed is caught between cooling labor conditions and persistent demand, as nominal spending growth remains above its pre-pandemic pace.
-
•
The Lesson of 1971 Was Never About Gold
President Nixon abandoned the gold standard. The deeper problem was a monetary system dependent on political judgment.
-
•
Japan’s Debt Crisis Is a Global Warning
Japan can watch debt-service costs consume its budget, or suppress rates and risk inflation. Decades of borrowing have eliminated the easy options.
-
•
One Month of Falling Prices Won’t Restore Price Stability
June’s PCE report showed prices falling as energy prices retreated, but underlying inflation and nominal spending remain too strong.
-
•
Standing Still as Inflation Runs Hot
Markets, monetary policy rules, and three Fed governors all pointed toward another rate increase. The committee chose to wait instead.
-
•
The Fed Is Expected to Hold Rates. The Rules Say It Shouldn’t
If the Fed leaves rates unchanged this week, the September meeting will take on added importance.
-
•
June Inflation Slowed as Energy Prices Fell
Markets sharply reduced the odds of a July rate increase after June CPI showed broad-based moderation in prices.