In the five years since the COVID pandemic, the AIER Year-End Holiday Index has risen an average of 3.7 percent per year, bringing to just under 19 percent the total increase in those prices. In the previous five year period from 2014 to 2019, the index rose just over 12 percent with an average annual increase of 2.4 percent.

Our proprietary measure, the HDAY Index, tracks price trends across a selection of categories including clothing, toys, books, software, jewelry, pet care, personal care, gift wrapping supplies, postage and shipping services, alcohol, sweets, indoor plants, and movie tickets. The table below summarizes the average annual percent changes in the five years prior to and after the pandemic in addition to the total change of price in those five year periods. These can be compared with the Employment Cost Index data and costs associated with holiday travel over those time periods: airfare and gasoline. 

	Avg Annual Change	Avg Annual Change	Total Change	Total Change
Category	(2014-2019)	(2019-2024)	(2014-2019)	(2019-2024)
HDAY Index	2.42%	3.71%	12.10%	18.55%
ECI Index	2.32%	3.15%	11.80%	15.75%
Airfare	0.85%	2.45%	4.25%	12.25%
Gasoline (avg)	-0.78%	1.25%	-3.90%	6.25%

Since the end of 2019, the HDAY Index reveals an increase of over 18 percent in the prices of selected goods and services. And as is shown below, every category other than recreational books and toys has surged in price. Notable increases over the past half-decade have occurred in categories most closely associated with Christmas, Hanukkah, and other end-of-year festivities: postage and delivery services, stationary and gift wrapping, confectionaries, and indoor plants and flowers. 

	Avg Annual Change	Avg Annual Change	Total Change	Total Change
Category	(2014-2019)	(2019-2024)	(2014-2019)	(2019-2024)
Sugar & Sweets	1.29%	5.65%	6.59%	31.60%
Womens & Girls Apparel	-2.05%	0.50%	-9.86%	2.52%
Mens & Boys Apparel	-0.38%	1.92%	-1.89%	9.97%
Toys	-8.21%	-1.91%	-34.86%	-9.20%
Recreational Books	-1.06%	-1.80%	-5.19%	-8.68%
Pets, Pet Products, And Services	1.32%	4.19%	6.78%	22.79%
Postage And Delivery Services	2.25%	4.92%	11.78%	27.14%
Jewelry And Watches	0.46%	0.72%	2.30%	3.66%
Indoor Plants And Flowers	0.61%	4.32%	3.10%	23.52%
Haircuts And Other Personal Care Services	2.50%	4.94%	13.16%	27.27%
Cakes, Cupcakes, And Cookies	1.14%	5.19%	5.85%	28.79%
Alcoholic Beverages At Home	0.83%	2.55%	4.24%	13.42%
Stationery, Stationery Supplies, Gift Wrap	0.10%	5.33%	0.50%	29.66%

The Christmas tree market this year reflects nuanced pricing adjustments and evolving consumer behaviors shaped by inflation and broader economic conditions. Live tree prices have risen modestly, averaging $80 to $100 compared to $75 in 2023, with key drivers including higher labor, fuel, and fertilizer costs. Compounding these pressures, extreme weather has constrained supplies of popular species such as Fraser firs and Balsams. While live trees continue to hold sentimental value for many families, some are shifting to artificial options to economize, leveraging their long-term reusability. But sales of artificial trees remain stagnant year-over-year, as many households that purchased during the pandemic refrain from upgrading. Also, the prices of artificial trees have not been spared increases as their costs reflect rising oil and natural gas prices during production. Continuing inflationary pressures and tighter budgets have led 21 percent of consumers to scale back their holiday spending, presenting challenges for tree vendors navigating a compressed shopping season. 

Despite these challenges, the tradition of Christmas trees — both live and artificial — remains strong, though shifting consumer preferences are evident. Younger generations are increasingly drawn to the experience of visiting live tree farms, reflecting the rising popularity of agri-tourism. At the same time, artificial trees, supported by innovations such as durable LED lighting and lower shipping costs, offer a practical and budget-friendly option for cost-conscious households. The compressed holiday shopping season has heightened the importance of early sales, while late-season discounts are expected to appeal to price-sensitive shoppers closer to Christmas Eve. 

The evolving picture highlights the balancing act between preserving cherished holiday traditions and adapting to the economic realities of inflation and tighter household budgets. Against the backdrop of rising costs for essentials such as food, beverages, gasoline, rent, and owner’s equivalent rent, the HDAY Index reflects the ongoing economic strain exacerbated by pandemic-era policies. While a few sectors have shown some price relief, the broader trend underscores the persistence of inflationary pressures. And as recently discussed, some of the costs associated with increasingly expensive traditions are difficult to see and account for. 

The question as to whether the economic, social, and political tradeoffs of COVID-era policies were justified continues to linger. As the January 20, 2025, inauguration approaches, Presidential pardons are likely to materially inform that ongoing debate.