Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Consumer Confidence Falls in September
Consumer attitudes were off but still generally upbeat in September, supported by a strong labor market. Incoherent policies and on-going trade wars could hurt attitudes and consumer spending in the future.
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Industrial Production Rose in August but the Trend Remains Weak
Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.
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Retail Sales Rise in August As Online Shopping Gains
Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
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Core Consumer Prices Up 2.4 Percent, Fastest Since 2008
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as falling energy prices mask accelerating core prices.
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Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly
Small business confidence weakened in August while job openings fell very slightly in July, but both remain at high levels. Economic data overall have been mixed and uncertainty remains high. Caution is warranted.
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Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals
U.S. private payrolls added just 96,000 jobs in August, raising concerns about the strength of the labor market and durability of the economic expansion. Erratic and unpredictable policy remain the biggest risks.
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ISM Surveys Suggest Diverging Paths
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rebounded in August, countering the weak results from the manufacturing report. However, erratic and unpredictable policies are keeping risks elevated.
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ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Points to Further Weakness
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below neutral for the first time in three years and highlights the growing negative impact of poor trade policy on business confidence.
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New Orders for Durable Goods Rose Again in July, but Details Are Mixed
Durable-goods orders rose for a second consecutive month, but the trend is essentially flat over the past year. Erratic, politically motivated policy remains the biggest risk to the economy.
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Single-Family-Housing Market Remains in a Flat Trend
New-home sales fell in July, and there is little evidence to support an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.
-
•
Consumer Confidence Falls in September
Consumer attitudes were off but still generally upbeat in September, supported by a strong labor market. Incoherent policies and on-going trade wars could hurt attitudes and consumer spending in the future.
-
•
Industrial Production Rose in August but the Trend Remains Weak
Industrial production rose in August, but the trend remains weak. Tariffs, erratic policy, and elevated uncertainty represent threats to the sector and the economy.
-
•
Retail Sales Rise in August As Online Shopping Gains
Retail sales improved in August, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
-
•
Core Consumer Prices Up 2.4 Percent, Fastest Since 2008
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in August as falling energy prices mask accelerating core prices.
-
•
Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly
Small business confidence weakened in August while job openings fell very slightly in July, but both remain at high levels. Economic data overall have been mixed and uncertainty remains high. Caution is warranted.
-
•
Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals
U.S. private payrolls added just 96,000 jobs in August, raising concerns about the strength of the labor market and durability of the economic expansion. Erratic and unpredictable policy remain the biggest risks.
-
•
ISM Surveys Suggest Diverging Paths
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rebounded in August, countering the weak results from the manufacturing report. However, erratic and unpredictable policies are keeping risks elevated.
-
•
ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Points to Further Weakness
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell below neutral for the first time in three years and highlights the growing negative impact of poor trade policy on business confidence.
-
•
New Orders for Durable Goods Rose Again in July, but Details Are Mixed
Durable-goods orders rose for a second consecutive month, but the trend is essentially flat over the past year. Erratic, politically motivated policy remains the biggest risk to the economy.
-
•
Single-Family-Housing Market Remains in a Flat Trend
New-home sales fell in July, and there is little evidence to support an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.