Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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New-home sales fell 9.4 percent in July to a 571,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from 630,000 in June. The four major regions of the country had widely differing performances in July, with two regions posting sharp, double-digit declines, one posting a small decline, and one posting a gain. Specifically, the largest region, the South โ…
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The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose in early August, driven by a jump in expectations about the future of the economy. The overall index came in at 97.6 in the first half of August versus 93.4 at the end of July, a rise of 4.5 percent. From a year ago,…
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Surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks point to robust economic activity and upbeat expectations about the future in their regional economies. The Empire State Manufacturing Surveyโs general-business-conditions index shows a net 25.2 percent of respondents said conditions were improving in August. That is a 15.4 percentage-point gain over the 9.8 percent…
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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in July and is up 1.7 percent from a year ago. The volatile food and energy components had contrasting results, with food prices up 0.2 percent while energy prices fell 0.1 percent. In the food category, food-store prices rose 0.2 percent and are up 0.3 percent from a…
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Producer prices were mostly lower in July. The producer price index for final demand fell 0.1 percent as the goods index fell 0.1 percent and services fell 0.2 percent. Within the goods category, food prices were unchanged in July and energy prices fell 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy from final goods, prices fell 0.1…
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Productivity, or output per hour, for the nonfarm business sector increased 0.9 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter, up from a 0.1 percent pace in the first quarter. Over the past four quarters, productivity increased 1.2 percent. Productivity is the magic bullet that helps restrain cost pressures and drives living standards over…
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A record 6.16 million positions were open at the end of June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 5.70 million at the end of May. Private-sector employers had a record 5.59 million vacancies to fill, up from 5.17 million in May. For the total economy and the private sector, the openings rates,…
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Payrolls in the United States rose by 209,000 in July, the second monthly gain above 200,000 in a row. Most, but not all, of the information in the July report was positive and provides evidence for a continuing economic expansion. First, the good news. The 209,000-job gain follows a 231,000-job increase in June and 145,000-job…
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Following Tuesdayโs report from the Institute for Supply Management suggesting that the manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly slower pace in July, yesterdayโs report from the ISM suggests a similar performance for the non-manufacturing sector. The ISMโs non-manufacturing index pulled back to a reading of 53.9 from 57.4 in June. For this index, 50 is…
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The manufacturing sectorโs Purchasing Managersโ Index registered a 56.3 reading in July, down from 57.8 in June. The PMI and most of the components remain at solidly favorable levels despite small declines in the latest month. For this index, 50 is neutral, with readings above 50 suggesting expansion in manufacturing and readings below 50 suggesting…
โข
New-home sales fell 9.4 percent in July to a 571,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from 630,000 in June. The four major regions of the country had widely differing performances in July, with two regions posting sharp, double-digit declines, one posting a small decline, and one posting a gain. Specifically, the largest region, the South โ…
โข
The Index of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose in early August, driven by a jump in expectations about the future of the economy. The overall index came in at 97.6 in the first half of August versus 93.4 at the end of July, a rise of 4.5 percent. From a year ago,…
โข
Surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks point to robust economic activity and upbeat expectations about the future in their regional economies. The Empire State Manufacturing Surveyโs general-business-conditions index shows a net 25.2 percent of respondents said conditions were improving in August. That is a 15.4 percentage-point gain over the 9.8 percent…
โข
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1 percent in July and is up 1.7 percent from a year ago. The volatile food and energy components had contrasting results, with food prices up 0.2 percent while energy prices fell 0.1 percent. In the food category, food-store prices rose 0.2 percent and are up 0.3 percent from a…
โข
Producer prices were mostly lower in July. The producer price index for final demand fell 0.1 percent as the goods index fell 0.1 percent and services fell 0.2 percent. Within the goods category, food prices were unchanged in July and energy prices fell 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy from final goods, prices fell 0.1…
โข
Productivity, or output per hour, for the nonfarm business sector increased 0.9 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter, up from a 0.1 percent pace in the first quarter. Over the past four quarters, productivity increased 1.2 percent. Productivity is the magic bullet that helps restrain cost pressures and drives living standards over…
โข
A record 6.16 million positions were open at the end of June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 5.70 million at the end of May. Private-sector employers had a record 5.59 million vacancies to fill, up from 5.17 million in May. For the total economy and the private sector, the openings rates,…
โข
Payrolls in the United States rose by 209,000 in July, the second monthly gain above 200,000 in a row. Most, but not all, of the information in the July report was positive and provides evidence for a continuing economic expansion. First, the good news. The 209,000-job gain follows a 231,000-job increase in June and 145,000-job…
โข
Following Tuesdayโs report from the Institute for Supply Management suggesting that the manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly slower pace in July, yesterdayโs report from the ISM suggests a similar performance for the non-manufacturing sector. The ISMโs non-manufacturing index pulled back to a reading of 53.9 from 57.4 in June. For this index, 50 is…
โข
The manufacturing sectorโs Purchasing Managersโ Index registered a 56.3 reading in July, down from 57.8 in June. The PMI and most of the components remain at solidly favorable levels despite small declines in the latest month. For this index, 50 is neutral, with readings above 50 suggesting expansion in manufacturing and readings below 50 suggesting…
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