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Robert Hughes

Robert Hughes

Senior Research Faculty

Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.

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    A Look Ahead to Friday’s 1Q GDP Report

    The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of first quarter 2017 gross domestic product on Friday, April 28. Estimates of the growth rate for GDP vary widely leading up to the release of the report. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York produces a “nowcast” estimate on a weekly basis. A nowcast is a…

  • •

    Home Builder Confidence Declines Slightly but Remains at a High Level

    The National Association of Home Builders released its April survey of home builders this morning. The survey is designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks home builders to rate market conditions for three specific topics: the sale of new homes, expected sales in the next six months, and the…

  • •

    Autos and Gas Drag Retail Sales Down, but Outlook Remains Favorable

    Retail sales fell for the second month in a row in March, pulled down by declines in motor vehicle and gasoline sales. Retail sales and sales of food services fell 0.2 percent in March following a 0.3 percent drop in February. Leading the decline was a 1.2 percent fall at motor vehicle and parts dealers.…

  • •

    Americans Feeling Good About the Economy

    The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers shows that Americans are feeling good about the economy. The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 98.0 in mid-April, up from 96.9 in March and 89.0 in April 2016. Those results translate into gains of 1.1 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively. The Index of Consumer Sentiment is made…

  • •

    Labor Market Glass Is Half Full

    Following last Friday’s jobs report, new labor market indicators show some mixed results but the net take-away is that the labor market has good momentum and the U.S. economy is likely to continue creating jobs at a healthy pace over the next few months. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau…

  • •

    Don’t Panic Over Weak March Jobs Report

    The headline payroll number from the March jobs report shows a gain of just 98,000 jobs in the month. That number was well below the consensus estimate of 180,000. Adding to the disappointment were net downward revisions of 38,000 to prior month’s gains. Initial reaction to such headlines have been negative. However, when all the…

  • Conflicting Signals on the Economy

    •

    Conflicting Signals on the Economy

    The most recent indicators on the economy released over the first few days of April provide mixed signals about the pace of economic growth but do not suggest the expansion is at risk. On the positive side, ADP, the global provider of cloud-based Human Capital Management solutions and best known for their payroll processing service,…

  • •

    First Quarter Ends with Mostly Upbeat Economic Data

    The last day of the first quarter of 2017 saw mostly positive economic data. First, the University of Michigan released the final estimates on consumer sentiment for March. The Index of Consumer Sentiment edged up to 96.9 from 96.3.  The increase was entirely due to a rise in the Current Economic Conditions portion which rose…

  • •

    Economy Stronger than GDP Headline Suggests

    Final estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show real gross domestic product rose 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 1.6 percent for all of 2016. Those results hide stronger performances in key domestic segments of the economy. Domestic demand, or real  final sales to private domestic purchasers, comprised of consumer spending,…

  • •

    Existing Home Sales Fall Slightly but Remain at a High Level

    Existing-home sales fell 3.7 percent in February but were still 5.4 percent above year-ago levels. Sales for February came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million, down from 5.69 million in January. The February pace is well above the post-recession low of 3.45 million in 2010, but well below the housing-bubble peak of…

  • •

    A Look Ahead to Friday’s 1Q GDP Report

    The Commerce Department will release its first estimate of first quarter 2017 gross domestic product on Friday, April 28. Estimates of the growth rate for GDP vary widely leading up to the release of the report. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York produces a “nowcast” estimate on a weekly basis. A nowcast is a…

  • •

    Home Builder Confidence Declines Slightly but Remains at a High Level

    The National Association of Home Builders released its April survey of home builders this morning. The survey is designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks home builders to rate market conditions for three specific topics: the sale of new homes, expected sales in the next six months, and the…

  • •

    Autos and Gas Drag Retail Sales Down, but Outlook Remains Favorable

    Retail sales fell for the second month in a row in March, pulled down by declines in motor vehicle and gasoline sales. Retail sales and sales of food services fell 0.2 percent in March following a 0.3 percent drop in February. Leading the decline was a 1.2 percent fall at motor vehicle and parts dealers.…

  • •

    Americans Feeling Good About the Economy

    The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers shows that Americans are feeling good about the economy. The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 98.0 in mid-April, up from 96.9 in March and 89.0 in April 2016. Those results translate into gains of 1.1 percent and 10.1 percent, respectively. The Index of Consumer Sentiment is made…

  • •

    Labor Market Glass Is Half Full

    Following last Friday’s jobs report, new labor market indicators show some mixed results but the net take-away is that the labor market has good momentum and the U.S. economy is likely to continue creating jobs at a healthy pace over the next few months. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau…

  • •

    Don’t Panic Over Weak March Jobs Report

    The headline payroll number from the March jobs report shows a gain of just 98,000 jobs in the month. That number was well below the consensus estimate of 180,000. Adding to the disappointment were net downward revisions of 38,000 to prior month’s gains. Initial reaction to such headlines have been negative. However, when all the…

  • Conflicting Signals on the Economy

    •

    Conflicting Signals on the Economy

    The most recent indicators on the economy released over the first few days of April provide mixed signals about the pace of economic growth but do not suggest the expansion is at risk. On the positive side, ADP, the global provider of cloud-based Human Capital Management solutions and best known for their payroll processing service,…

  • •

    First Quarter Ends with Mostly Upbeat Economic Data

    The last day of the first quarter of 2017 saw mostly positive economic data. First, the University of Michigan released the final estimates on consumer sentiment for March. The Index of Consumer Sentiment edged up to 96.9 from 96.3.  The increase was entirely due to a rise in the Current Economic Conditions portion which rose…

  • •

    Economy Stronger than GDP Headline Suggests

    Final estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show real gross domestic product rose 2.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 1.6 percent for all of 2016. Those results hide stronger performances in key domestic segments of the economy. Domestic demand, or real  final sales to private domestic purchasers, comprised of consumer spending,…

  • •

    Existing Home Sales Fall Slightly but Remain at a High Level

    Existing-home sales fell 3.7 percent in February but were still 5.4 percent above year-ago levels. Sales for February came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.48 million, down from 5.69 million in January. The February pace is well above the post-recession low of 3.45 million in 2010, but well below the housing-bubble peak of…