blindleadingblind

Beware the Candidate with a Plan

Without realizing it, and as brilliant as they may be, the candidatesโ€”like all of usโ€”are still profoundly ignorant.

Nobel Laureate Friedrich Hayekโ€™s last book is titled โ€œThe Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism.โ€ In this relatively short work from 1988, Hayek attempts to capture the essence of a lifetime effort to understand and explain how the actions taken by entire nations of people can create order. Letโ€™s keep these lessons in mind as we hear ideas, both good and bad, from the field of 2020 presidential candidates.

Hayekโ€™s focus was on institutionsโ€”customs, traditions, rules of law, and governmentโ€”that sustain life and promote prosperity. Always showing a deep understanding of and respect for human nature, as well as an appreciation for evolutionary forces that affect all aspects of human life, he saw most features of society as having emerged spontaneously, not as the result of grand plans or designs. Millions of individuals making countless, largely rational and unnoticed decisions are the ones truly steering the ship.

The title of his book reflects a common self-delusion: the conceit that causes us to believe that mankindโ€™s most profound problems can be solved if an assembly of the brightest and bestโ€”the โ€œright onesโ€โ€”are brought to Washington to devise a detailed, top-down plan to be implemented with the force of law. Almost inevitably, socialized approaches are seen as inherently superior to decentralized ones.

Of course, all of this conceit business is sometimes just political chatter. Many of these grand plans never really go anywhere. The conceit becomes potentially deadlyโ€”โ€œfatal,โ€ as Hayek put itโ€”when it is taken too seriously. We see this when presidential candidatesโ€”though having never held a high-ranking executive office in their lives and with little first-hand technical knowledgeโ€”offer detailed plans to deal with such far-ranging problems as the opioid crisis, higher education for all, healthcare access for the indigent, climate change, nuclear proliferation, regulation of self-driving automobiles, abortion access, and cybersecurity.

No single person or agency can know how these plans (and their ripple effects) will affect the decision-making dynamic of millions of distinct individuals. Too often, this results in policies imposed upon the nation that simply do not work very well.

The conceit becomes complete when the typical voter is persuaded by all of this top-down political talk. This voter will not be satisfied with candidates who suggest, humbly and accurately, that the issue at hand is too complex to be solved beforehand by a group of experts, and that the knowledge necessary for addressing the problem is to found among the people. The candidate who says โ€œIโ€™ve got the solutionโ€ beats the one who will organize a series of town meetings nationwide to listen, learn, and then develop guidelines for legislating.

In like manner, the โ€œIโ€™ve got the solutionโ€ candidate wonโ€™t typically appreciate hearing about programs that assign a high priority to liberty while seeking to unleash and empower individuals to find decentralized solutions. Nor will this candidate be quick to leave some matters to state and local governments to resolve.

Conceit is endemic in presidential politics, no matter the party. We are not lacking for examples in the contest for the presidency in 2020. Nor should we expect otherwise.

We now see Senator Bernie Sanders presenting a series of detailed top-down solutions to important social problems. We hear plans from former Vice President Joe Biden and others. Indeed, a better illustration of Hayekโ€™s concern is found in aย New York Timesย analysisย of Senator Elizabeth Warrenโ€™s public remarks. It focuses on her regular referral to specific plans and white papers that she has developed for solving many national problems. Theย Manchester Guardianย alsoย notedย the senatorโ€™s habit of responding to questions about an issue by saying, โ€œI have a plan for that.โ€

Hayek, who saw grand plans as a perfect vehicle for the fatal conceit, argued that highly mobile and creative human beings may have a better approach when left to their own devices. As he points out, ordinary people tend to solve the problems they confront, to figure things out, and invent new ways of doing thingsโ€”including governingโ€”and conserve resources in doing so. Those who face fewer regulatory constraints in carrying out their search for solutions tend to be more successful. But to be successful, those involved in lifeโ€™s struggles must be subject to systems of property rights and a rule of law.

Through all this, human beings face a fundamental challenge which Hayek calls the โ€œknowledge problem.โ€ The knowledge required to address problems and invent solutions is dispersed across countless individual minds. In todayโ€™s terms, the trick is to find ways to make connections with billions of minds and engage them in building a better world.

Putting the meaning of Hayekโ€™s knowledge problem into simple terms was a challenge met admirably by Leonard Read whenย he wrote a 1958 essay titled โ€œI, Pencil.โ€ Readโ€™s essay makes the simple point that no one individual has sufficient knowledge to make even an ordinary yellow wooden pencil, the kind with lead inside and an eraser on top. While seemingly simple, each pencil component, along with its source and the technical knowledge required to obtain and process it, is extraordinarily complex. Yet these complicated devices are available everywhere, often without charge.

Readโ€™s larger point is that ordinary people working in uncoordinated ways in relatively free markets solved the pencil problem, yet no single person had the knowledge necessary to do so. Those producing the inputs may have had no intent to create a pencil at all. We readily observe seemingly miraculous outcomes for far-more complicated devices, such as the construction of skyscrapers, suspension bridges, the design and manufacture of smart phones, computers, and the invention and production of artificial limbs and life-saving drugs.

The opposite of the pencil producers, Senator Warren and other candidates are attempting to solve important problems by concentrating knowledge in Washington and then passing problem-solving legislation based on a frozen collection of information. The candidates are undoubtedly sincere in their belief that they have the requisite knowledge and leadership ability to muster multiple solutions, if only they are elected.

Without realizing it, and as brilliant as they may be, the candidatesโ€”like all of usโ€”are still profoundly ignorant. The time has come for more town meetings, more listening, less lecturing, and for the development of guiding principles instead of detailed answers for later legislative debate. That way, we may avoid the fatal conceit.



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