Drooping Consumer Sentiment Belies Fundamentals

Despite a series of upbeat data on the economy, consumer sentiment was markedly down in new data out late this week. Our senior research fellow, Bob Hughes, says that is likely a psychological reaction to the recent market volatility, and is probably a fleeting phenomenon.

Despite a series of upbeat data on the economy, consumer sentiment was markedly down in new data out late this week. Our senior research fellow, Bob Hughes, says that is likely a psychological reaction to the recent market volatility, and is probably a fleeting phenomenon.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, released this morning, and the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, released Thursday, โ€œboth have been trending lower for a few months, with the Michigan survey dropping substantially in the latest month which is  likely a result of stock market volatility,โ€ Hughes said.

โ€œConsumer psyche is not doing all that well, however, other indicators suggest consumers should be feeling a little bit better,โ€ Hughes said.

For instance, the number of job openings is at an all-time high, indicating more opportunity for job seekers, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday, Hughes noted.

A survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, out Tuesday, showed 29 percent of their members have positions theyโ€™re unable to fill now, he said. Thatโ€™s a pretty strong number, up from a low of 8 percent in 2009, Hughes said.

And initial claims for unemployment were 275,000 for the week, another low number, Hughes said. Anything below 300,000 is considered good, and itโ€™s been under that threshold since March, he said.

Add to that low gas prices โ€“ a gallon of regular unleaded was $2.53 on Friday, according to the Energy Information Administration, with continued downward movement expected โ€“ and consumer sentiment is likely poised for a rebound, particularly if volatility in global stock markets recedes, Hughes said.

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