Business Conditions
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise Slightly
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up and are slightly above the pre-pandemic level. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Harsh Weather Drives a Surge in Utility Output While Manufacturing Posts a Modest Gain
“Industrial output jumped in January, led by a weather-related surge in utility output. Modest gains across many other areas puts about 95 percent of industrial producers at or above pre-pandemic levels. While declining Omicron cases should reduce constraints on output, overall labor shortages remain a significant obstacle.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Retail Spending Rebounded in January
“Retail sales rebounded in January and remain at a high level. However, some of the strong gains are likely due to price increases, making real gains less robust.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Fell Sharply in Early February
“Consumer sentiment fell again in early February and is now below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private Payrolls Show Surprising Strength in January, Adding 444,000 Jobs
“Payrolls growth was unexpectedly strong in January and revisions show more robust gains over the past year. The results support a positive outlook for growth and an eventual slowing of price increases, but upward price pressures may continue a while longer until production and logistical constraints are significantly reduced.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Services-Sector Growth May Have Slowed Again in January
“The services sector expanded in January, but Covid continues to impact operations. Shortages of labor and materials continue to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, though cresting new cases of Covid may provide a small amount of relief.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall Again, Remain Very Low
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again, pulling back from a three-month high two weeks ago. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Unit Auto Sales Improved While Assemblies, Inventories, and Prices Stabilize
“Light-vehicle sales picked up in January. Component shortages are still restricting production, but assemblies, inventory, and prices may be starting to stabilize, albeit at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private-Sector Job Openings Totaled Nearly 10 Million in December
“Job openings rose again while quits eased slightly but remain near record levels. The tight labor market continues to hamper production and sustain upward pressure on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise Slightly
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up and are slightly above the pre-pandemic level. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Harsh Weather Drives a Surge in Utility Output While Manufacturing Posts a Modest Gain
“Industrial output jumped in January, led by a weather-related surge in utility output. Modest gains across many other areas puts about 95 percent of industrial producers at or above pre-pandemic levels. While declining Omicron cases should reduce constraints on output, overall labor shortages remain a significant obstacle.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Retail Spending Rebounded in January
“Retail sales rebounded in January and remain at a high level. However, some of the strong gains are likely due to price increases, making real gains less robust.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Consumer Sentiment Fell Sharply in Early February
“Consumer sentiment fell again in early February and is now below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Private Payrolls Show Surprising Strength in January, Adding 444,000 Jobs
“Payrolls growth was unexpectedly strong in January and revisions show more robust gains over the past year. The results support a positive outlook for growth and an eventual slowing of price increases, but upward price pressures may continue a while longer until production and logistical constraints are significantly reduced.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Services-Sector Growth May Have Slowed Again in January
“The services sector expanded in January, but Covid continues to impact operations. Shortages of labor and materials continue to restrain output and sustain upward pressure on prices, though cresting new cases of Covid may provide a small amount of relief.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall Again, Remain Very Low
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again, pulling back from a three-month high two weeks ago. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Unit Auto Sales Improved While Assemblies, Inventories, and Prices Stabilize
“Light-vehicle sales picked up in January. Component shortages are still restricting production, but assemblies, inventory, and prices may be starting to stabilize, albeit at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private-Sector Job Openings Totaled Nearly 10 Million in December
“Job openings rose again while quits eased slightly but remain near record levels. The tight labor market continues to hamper production and sustain upward pressure on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes