Business Conditions
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Business Conditions Monthly October 2024
A cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025 is tempered by risks of serious disruption: tariffs, faltering disinflation, fiscal disputes, and stratospheric equity valuations.
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Business Conditions Monthly September 2024
Economic growth in the months ahead will hinge on lagging consumption, and developments in labor markets and monetary policy.
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Business Conditions Monthly August 2024
A soft landing appears increasingly viable. But we won’t know until November’s political dust settles.
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Business Conditions Monthly July 2024
“The key question, moving forward, is whether the Federal Reserve’s shift to accommodation will be sufficient to counteract the emerging signs of economic contraction.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly June 2024
“While the Federal Reserve’s progress in controlling inflation may provide the latitude needed to begin rate cuts aimed at supporting employment…the United States has either entered, or is on the verge of entering, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly May 2024
“Ongoing data noise driven by pandemic policies, unstable prices, Fed rate hikes, consumer fatigue, and stubborn disinflation early in the year, in combination, broadly suggest an economy experiencing mixed signals.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly March 2024
“We remain cautious, as economic statistics have been both volatile and reflective of highly unusual underlying conditions since pandemic policies were lifted three years ago.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly February 2024
“Amidst mixed economic data reminiscent of most of the past two years, there are pockets of strength which are nevertheless overshadowed by inflation concerns and speculation regarding monetary policy actions in the coming quarter or two.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2024
“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent
“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly October 2024
A cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025 is tempered by risks of serious disruption: tariffs, faltering disinflation, fiscal disputes, and stratospheric equity valuations.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly September 2024
Economic growth in the months ahead will hinge on lagging consumption, and developments in labor markets and monetary policy.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly August 2024
A soft landing appears increasingly viable. But we won’t know until November’s political dust settles.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly July 2024
“The key question, moving forward, is whether the Federal Reserve’s shift to accommodation will be sufficient to counteract the emerging signs of economic contraction.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly June 2024
“While the Federal Reserve’s progress in controlling inflation may provide the latitude needed to begin rate cuts aimed at supporting employment…the United States has either entered, or is on the verge of entering, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Business Conditions Monthly May 2024
“Ongoing data noise driven by pandemic policies, unstable prices, Fed rate hikes, consumer fatigue, and stubborn disinflation early in the year, in combination, broadly suggest an economy experiencing mixed signals.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly March 2024
“We remain cautious, as economic statistics have been both volatile and reflective of highly unusual underlying conditions since pandemic policies were lifted three years ago.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly February 2024
“Amidst mixed economic data reminiscent of most of the past two years, there are pockets of strength which are nevertheless overshadowed by inflation concerns and speculation regarding monetary policy actions in the coming quarter or two.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly January 2024
“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Spikes 0.73 Percent
“While tailwinds from normalizing supply chains are cooling goods prices, concerns linger about the sustainability of this trend. In particular, the February CPI readings strongly suggest that the January updraft was not anomalous.” ~Peter C. Earle