Business Conditions

“Job openings hit another record high in July but the weaker-than-expected August jobs report and surging new Covid cases are clouding the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes

“Payrolls posted a disappointing gain in August as new Covid cases surge. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth have increased substantially.” – Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in August, falling farther below the recent typical range. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic though continuing claims ticked up. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases remain a threat to the outlook.”…

“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in August. However, labor, production, and logistical issues – many of which are worsening with the surge in new Covid cases – continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes

“Consumer attitudes are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The waning optimism could impact spending and adds to the growing list of risks to the economic outlook” – Robert Hughes

“New-home sales rose in July while supply conditions eased a bit further. Rising prices, somewhat higher mortgage rates, and resurgent Covid cases are likely to sustain continued crosswinds and increased uncertainty for the housing market.” – Robert Hughes

“Existing-home sales and inventories rose slightly in July as high prices and shifting housing preferences weigh on the recent pace of activity.” – Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth consecutive week, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases are a threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes

“Single-family housing activity showed further signs of cooling in July. The combination of shifting housing preferences and rising single-family home prices appear to be dampening demand while labor difficulties and materials shortages restrain supply.” – Robert Hughes