Business Conditions

“Industrial output rose in June but the details among industries and market segments were mixed. However, substantial excess capacity still exists. While reopening the economy is boosting demand, supply constraints are pressuring prices. However, a runaway inflationary spiral remains unlikely.” – Robert Hughes

“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell in the latest week but the trends have slowed, and the levels remain elevated. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should continue to drive initial claims lower.” – Robert Hughes

“Consumer credit jumped in May as easing government restrictions boosted economic activity.” – Robert Hughes

“The declining trend in weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits may pause briefly, but a tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should continue to drive initial claims lower.” – Robert Hughes

“Job openings hit another record high in May as businesses struggle to attract qualified workers in a tight labor market.” – Robert Hughes

“The services sector expanded again in June, but shortages of labor and materials are continuing to restrain output.” – Robert Hughes

“Light-vehicle sales fell again in June, falling below the recent range. A semiconductor shortage continues to disrupt production and is likely distorting sales, inventories, and prices.” – Robert Hughes

“Payrolls posted another strong gain in June as the labor market recovery continues. However, there’s a long way to go and other fallout from the lockdowns, including shortages and rising price pressures are tempering the favorable outlook.” – Robert Hughes

“The Institute for Supply Management survey of manufacturers suggests robust demand for manufactured goods, but also continued labor, production, and logistical issues as well as upward pressure on materials costs.” – Robert Hughes