Business Conditions
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New York Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges in March
New York Fed Survey shows a sharp drop in business conditions for local manufacturers, likely a result of COVID-19.
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Small-Business Optimism Remained High in February but COVID-19 Increases Uncertainty
Small-business confidence remained robust in February; labor-market issues are the top concern.
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Labor Market Shows Broad Strength Prior to COVID-19 Outbreak
The U.S labor market had strong momentum prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, however the severity of disruptions to economic activity is still unknown. Extreme caution is warranted.
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ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms
The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.
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Manufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February
The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.
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Revised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent
Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.
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Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend
Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.
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Consumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher
Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.
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Existing-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight
Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
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New-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January
Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.
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•
New York Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges in March
New York Fed Survey shows a sharp drop in business conditions for local manufacturers, likely a result of COVID-19.
-
•
Small-Business Optimism Remained High in February but COVID-19 Increases Uncertainty
Small-business confidence remained robust in February; labor-market issues are the top concern.
-
•
Labor Market Shows Broad Strength Prior to COVID-19 Outbreak
The U.S labor market had strong momentum prior to the outbreak of COVID-19, however the severity of disruptions to economic activity is still unknown. Extreme caution is warranted.
-
•
ISM Surveys: The Calm Before the Potential Storms
The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in February. However, the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak are still growing and represent a very substantial risk to the economic outlook.
-
•
Manufacturing-Sector Looks Weak Again in February
The ISM PMI weakened in February suggesting a delay in any significant turnaround for manufacturing.
-
•
Revised Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Growth at 2.1 Percent
Revised real gross domestic product rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter. Details show that persistent economic growth remains dependent on consumers.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Remain in a Flat Trend
Capital-goods orders remain in a flat trend, but at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.
-
•
Consumer Confidence Holds Steady While Home Prices Move Higher
Consumer confidence remained high in February, supported by a positive outlook for the economy and labor market. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.
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•
Existing-Home Sales Remain Range Bound; Inventory Remains Tight
Existing-home sales fell 1.3 percent in January and remain in a broad flat trend. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
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•
New-Home Construction Falls While Permits Rise in January
Housing starts and permits were mixed in January; significant and sustained gains over coming quarters seem unlikely.