Business Conditions

Existing-home sales have recovered from a recent dip but are unlikely to move significantly higher in coming months and quarters.

Retail-sales and initial-claims data indicate consumer spending is rising, supported by a robust labor market.

A disappointing December jobs report suggests slow growth for consumer spending and the overall economy.

Auto sales fell slightly in December, but consumer fundamentals and the labor market remain healthy; the outlook remains moderately favorable.

ADP estimates 202,000 new jobs were created in December. Overall, the labor market remains solid and the most likely path is for continued expansion.

The ISM’s nonmanufacturing NMI rose in December, but details are mixed suggesting slow growth and a cautious outlook.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in December, extending the weak results over the last several months. Tepid trade and soft global growth are keeping risks elevated.

A high level of job openings and quits suggest the labor market remains tight and is one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.

Manufacturing output jumped in November but it’s too early to tell if growth will be sustained.

Housing activity continues to rebound from a period of weakness, but further upside is likely limited.