Business Conditions

Preliminary estimates suggest retail sales were modest in November implying slow growth remains the most likely path.

Weekly initial claims jumped but the data tend to be quite volatile, especially around the holidays. Overall, the labor market remains tight.

Small-business confidence rose in November despite concerns over labor shortages.

A strong November jobs report suggests support for consumer spending and continued economic expansion, though erratic policies could weigh on consumer and business confidence.

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in November, but the mixed results and near-neutral level of the composite index perpetuates doubts about the strength of the economy.

Nonresidential construction activity continues at a high level though the broader trend is essentially flat.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI posted a fourth consecutive month below neutral in November. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

Housing activity is enjoying a tailwind from the drop in mortgage rates but housing activity is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.

Consumer sentiment has trended slightly lower in recent months but remains at a high level; partisan differences remain significant.

Housing activity continues to rebound from a period of weakness, but the upside remains limited.