Business Conditions

Core retail sales were weak in October adding to concern about the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

Consumer sentiment maintained a generally high level by historical comparison in early November.

The nonmanufacturing sector expanded in October, diverging from the manufacturing-sector contraction. Erratic and unpredictable policies may be hurting manufacturing and the labor market.

Auto sales fell in October but remain at a high level. While economic data is mixed, the labor market remains solid and the outlook remains cautiously optimistic.

The ISM’s manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory for a third consecutive month. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.

A solid October jobs report suggests continued economic expansion. However, growth has slowed and may leave the economy more vulnerable to erratic policies and elevated uncertainty.

The economy expanded at a modest pace in the third quarter and remains vulnerable to continued erratic policy causing further damage.

Consumer sentiment improved in October, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. However, negative headlines about on going trade wars and risks to the economy have caused volatility recently.

New orders for durable goods and core capital-goods decreased in September but continue in a broad flat trend, holding at a relatively high level, and suggesting slow growth.

Existing-home sales fell 2.2 percent in September and are about even with levels from 2016. Housing activity is unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.