Business Conditions
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Manufacturing Slides Further While Housing Stabilizes
Single-family home construction picked up in September while an auto-production strike weighed on an already weak manufacturing sector. Erratic policy and elevated uncertainty continue to restrain activity and keep the economy vulnerable.
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Consumers Restrain Spending in September
Retail sales were weak in September raising concern about the strength of the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.
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Job Openings Decline in August, Continuing Downward Trend
Private-sector job openings have fallen in six of the past nine months, suggesting that erratic and incoherent policy may be undermining confidence in the economic outlook.
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Small-Business Optimism Faded A Bit in September, But Remains High
Small-business confidence remained solid in September, but labor shortages and policy uncertainty are major concerns.
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A Weak September Jobs Report Raises Concern
U.S. payrolls added 136,000 jobs in September. The report raises concerns that escalating trade wars and inconsistent, incoherent policies are threatening the economic expansion.
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How to Prepare Yourself Financially for Recession
Carrying an umbrella even when it doesn’t rain is a small price to pay.
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ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in September
The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in September, extending the weak results from the previous report. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.
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Why the U.S. Yield Curve Reliably Predicts U.S. Recessions
Over the past half century in the U.S., yield-curve inversions have been important because they’ve reliably predicted all seven U.S. recessions.
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Recession Doesn’t Equal Crisis
The specific conditions that predicated the 2008 financial crisis are not in place this time around.
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New Home Sales Rose in August on Gains in the South and West
Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.
-
•
Manufacturing Slides Further While Housing Stabilizes
Single-family home construction picked up in September while an auto-production strike weighed on an already weak manufacturing sector. Erratic policy and elevated uncertainty continue to restrain activity and keep the economy vulnerable.
-
•
Consumers Restrain Spending in September
Retail sales were weak in September raising concern about the strength of the economy. However, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.
-
•
Job Openings Decline in August, Continuing Downward Trend
Private-sector job openings have fallen in six of the past nine months, suggesting that erratic and incoherent policy may be undermining confidence in the economic outlook.
-
•
Small-Business Optimism Faded A Bit in September, But Remains High
Small-business confidence remained solid in September, but labor shortages and policy uncertainty are major concerns.
-
•
A Weak September Jobs Report Raises Concern
U.S. payrolls added 136,000 jobs in September. The report raises concerns that escalating trade wars and inconsistent, incoherent policies are threatening the economic expansion.
-
•
How to Prepare Yourself Financially for Recession
Carrying an umbrella even when it doesn’t rain is a small price to pay.
-
•
ISM Manufacturing Index Remains Below Neutral in September
The ISM’s manufacturing PMI fell again in September, extending the weak results from the previous report. Declining trade amid slowing global growth and erratic U.S. policies are keeping risks elevated.
-
•
Why the U.S. Yield Curve Reliably Predicts U.S. Recessions
Over the past half century in the U.S., yield-curve inversions have been important because they’ve reliably predicted all seven U.S. recessions.
-
•
Recession Doesn’t Equal Crisis
The specific conditions that predicated the 2008 financial crisis are not in place this time around.
-
•
New Home Sales Rose in August on Gains in the South and West
Sales of new single-family homes rose in August, but regional performances vary widely. Still, the gain is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.