Business Conditions

Existing-home sales are recovering from a recent dip but are unlikely to move significantly higher in coming months and quarters.

Consumer sentiment fell sharply in August in reaction to the latest trade and monetary policy decisions.

Single-family housing activity has stabilized, but there is little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future; multifamily housing activity remains robust.

Retail sales rose again in July, but industrial production fell. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path.

Initial claims near 200,000 and private job openings near 7 million suggest the labor market remains tight, supporting personal incomes, consumer confidence, and future consumer spending.

Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in July. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to continued though uneven growth.

A solid though not spectacular July jobs report points to continued modest economic growth. It also adds to the uncertainty around monetary policy, making justification for the most recent rate cut and future rate cuts more difficult.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its fourth-straight decline and lowest reading since September 2016. Mixed economic data continue to suggest a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.

ADP estimates 156,000 new jobs were created in July. Overall, the labor market remains solid, and while uncertainty over trade and monetary policy remain, the most likely path is for continued expansion.

Consumer confidence rebounded in July and remains at a high level. However, persistently rising home prices are weighing on housing activity.