Business Conditions

Home sales rebounded in June. However, little evidence supports an expectation of a significant, sustained acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.

Durable-goods orders rose in June, and core capital-goods orders are holding at a high level. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but policy uncertainty remains a risk.

Despite falling mortgage rates, existing-home sales fell and home-price increases decelerated in May.

Retail sales and industrial production improved in June, but data for the economy remain mixed. Overall, continued economic expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.

Small-business confidence and job openings eased back but remain at high levels. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic and uncertain policy.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 224,000 jobs in June, all but guaranteeing a record-tying expansion, but uncertain leadership and policy remain significant risks.

A variety of data released today suggest continued economic expansion. Despite concerns over trade policy, escalating trade wars, and global economic growth that are creating significant uncertainty, the outlook is cautiously optimistic.

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index posted its third straight decline and lowest reading since October 2016. Mixed economic data continue to suggest a high degree of caution amid slow economic expansion.

Consumer sentiment fell slightly in June but remains at a high level while income and spending continued to grow in May. Tariffs and trade wars remain a significant risk.