Business Conditions
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Durable-Goods Orders Jump in August
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.5 percent in August while orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4 percent to a new record. Today’s reports suggest that demand remains strong and that the broader economy is maintaining solid momentum in the second half of 2018.
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Housing Data Remain Soft
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August and are up 12.7 percent from a year ago, however, they are down 11.7 percent from November 2017. Declining affordability suggests that sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
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Manufacturing Surveys Remain Positive
Two surveys on manufacturing showed positive results in September. However significant concerns remain regarding the tight labor market and rising input-cost pressures.
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Three Solid Movies on the 2008 Crisis
The most well-known of the movies on the 2008 financial crisis is also the weakest. On the other hand, there are two wonderful films about it that deal with both the difficult times for traders and the underlying causes.
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Housing Permits Fall to the Lowest Level in Two Years
Housing starts rose by 9.2 percent in August. However, housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell in the latest month, hitting the lowest level since August 2016. Combined with rising interest rates and falling affordability, the outlook for housing is deteriorating.
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Trio of Reports Sends Mixed, but Mostly Positive, Signals
Consumer Sentiment jumped in early September while retail sales and industrial production both posted modest gains though with mixed results among the details. Overall, the three reports suggest solid growth trends, supporting a positive outlook.
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Where Do Business Cycles Come From?
“Karl Marx gave the world the myth that economic crises are inherent to capitalism. Yet overwhelming evidence says they result from war and political unrest, or come from natural events.” ~ Antony Mueller
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New Record Highs for Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings
The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. Job openings also reached a new all-time high. Combined, these reports indicate on-going economic strength and support a positive outlook over the coming months and quarters.
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Macro Aggregates Hide the Real Market Processes at Work
“A crucial reason why monetary and fiscal planners fail traces to the indicators they use as the signposts for what they may need to do are themselves false signals hiding from view the reality of the complex market system.” ~ Richard Ebeling
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Average Hourly Earnings Growth Accelerates to a Cycle High in August
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August bringing 12-month total to 2.33 million new jobs while hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a 12-month gain of 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2009. Broad-based gains in the labor market are providing support for consumer confidence, consumer spending, and the economy overall.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Jump in August
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.5 percent in August while orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4 percent to a new record. Today’s reports suggest that demand remains strong and that the broader economy is maintaining solid momentum in the second half of 2018.
-
•
Housing Data Remain Soft
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August and are up 12.7 percent from a year ago, however, they are down 11.7 percent from November 2017. Declining affordability suggests that sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
-
•
Manufacturing Surveys Remain Positive
Two surveys on manufacturing showed positive results in September. However significant concerns remain regarding the tight labor market and rising input-cost pressures.
-
•
Three Solid Movies on the 2008 Crisis
The most well-known of the movies on the 2008 financial crisis is also the weakest. On the other hand, there are two wonderful films about it that deal with both the difficult times for traders and the underlying causes.
-
•
Housing Permits Fall to the Lowest Level in Two Years
Housing starts rose by 9.2 percent in August. However, housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell in the latest month, hitting the lowest level since August 2016. Combined with rising interest rates and falling affordability, the outlook for housing is deteriorating.
-
•
Trio of Reports Sends Mixed, but Mostly Positive, Signals
Consumer Sentiment jumped in early September while retail sales and industrial production both posted modest gains though with mixed results among the details. Overall, the three reports suggest solid growth trends, supporting a positive outlook.
-
•
Where Do Business Cycles Come From?
“Karl Marx gave the world the myth that economic crises are inherent to capitalism. Yet overwhelming evidence says they result from war and political unrest, or come from natural events.” ~ Antony Mueller
-
•
New Record Highs for Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings
The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. Job openings also reached a new all-time high. Combined, these reports indicate on-going economic strength and support a positive outlook over the coming months and quarters.
-
•
Macro Aggregates Hide the Real Market Processes at Work
“A crucial reason why monetary and fiscal planners fail traces to the indicators they use as the signposts for what they may need to do are themselves false signals hiding from view the reality of the complex market system.” ~ Richard Ebeling
-
•
Average Hourly Earnings Growth Accelerates to a Cycle High in August
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August bringing 12-month total to 2.33 million new jobs while hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a 12-month gain of 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2009. Broad-based gains in the labor market are providing support for consumer confidence, consumer spending, and the economy overall.