Business Conditions
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The Financial Crisis, Ten Years On
It was this time ten years ago that people started to catch on that something was going wrong. Home prices stopped rising, many were falling, the flipping schemes were dying out, and default notices were being posted for smaller banking houses. Could it be that the entire glory days of the spectacular increases in home…
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Economic Outlook Remains Positive Despite Slower GDP Growth
Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, down from a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2017. However, growth over the past four quarters hit 2.9 percent, the fastest four-quarter gain since the second quarter of 2015.
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Small-Business Optimism Ticked Down in March but Remains High; Quality of Labor Remains the Most Important Problem
The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business fell in March but the result extends a run of 16 consecutive months above 100, a very high level by historical comparison. A significant concern among small businesses is the declining quality of the available labor force, particularly in the context of an already tight…
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Suspiciously Pessimistic March Jobs Report
The employment report was weaker than expected for March, adding just 103,000 new jobs for the month. However, there are a number of tensions among the details of the report and with other measures of the labor market. Certainly, the BLS report could be the first of a string of weaker reports on the labor…
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Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Rises 2.9 Percent as Domestic Demand Surges
Real GDP grew at a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter as domestic demand surged. Most of the major components of GDP made positive contributions, and core consumer prices rose at a modest pace, however, corporate profits did show a decline.
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Consumer Confidence Ticked Down in March but Remains at a Very High Level
The Consumer Confidence Survey from The Conference Board shows consumer attitudes pulled back slightly in March but remain at historically favorable levels overall, suggesting support for ongoing economic expansion.
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Durable-Goods Orders Rebound in February, Maintain Upward Trend
New orders for durable goods rose 3.1 percent in February to $247.7 billion. Over the past 12 months, total durable-goods orders are up 8.9 percent, and since hitting a recent low of $211.5 billion in June 2016, the gain is 17.1 percent.
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Labor Market Indicators Remain Strong Ahead of November Jobs Report
Recent indicators for the labor market from ADP, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, and state unemployment insurance programs remain quite strong, suggesting continuing gains in jobs in the U.S. economy.
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Auto Sales Fell Slightly in November but Remain at a High Level
Auto sales eased back to 17.5 million in November, the second monthly slowing following a hurricane-related surge to 18.6 million in September. Despite the slowing over the latest two months, auto sales remain at a high level by historical comparison.
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Real GDP Gain Masks Slowdown in Private Domestic Demand
The advance estimate for third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) shows 3.0 growth, but that headline number masks a notable slowdown in private domestic demand.
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•
The Financial Crisis, Ten Years On
It was this time ten years ago that people started to catch on that something was going wrong. Home prices stopped rising, many were falling, the flipping schemes were dying out, and default notices were being posted for smaller banking houses. Could it be that the entire glory days of the spectacular increases in home…
-
•
Economic Outlook Remains Positive Despite Slower GDP Growth
Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, down from a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter of 2017. However, growth over the past four quarters hit 2.9 percent, the fastest four-quarter gain since the second quarter of 2015.
-
•
Small-Business Optimism Ticked Down in March but Remains High; Quality of Labor Remains the Most Important Problem
The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business fell in March but the result extends a run of 16 consecutive months above 100, a very high level by historical comparison. A significant concern among small businesses is the declining quality of the available labor force, particularly in the context of an already tight…
-
•
Suspiciously Pessimistic March Jobs Report
The employment report was weaker than expected for March, adding just 103,000 new jobs for the month. However, there are a number of tensions among the details of the report and with other measures of the labor market. Certainly, the BLS report could be the first of a string of weaker reports on the labor…
-
•
Fourth-Quarter Real GDP Rises 2.9 Percent as Domestic Demand Surges
Real GDP grew at a 2.9 percent pace in the fourth quarter as domestic demand surged. Most of the major components of GDP made positive contributions, and core consumer prices rose at a modest pace, however, corporate profits did show a decline.
-
•
Consumer Confidence Ticked Down in March but Remains at a Very High Level
The Consumer Confidence Survey from The Conference Board shows consumer attitudes pulled back slightly in March but remain at historically favorable levels overall, suggesting support for ongoing economic expansion.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Rebound in February, Maintain Upward Trend
New orders for durable goods rose 3.1 percent in February to $247.7 billion. Over the past 12 months, total durable-goods orders are up 8.9 percent, and since hitting a recent low of $211.5 billion in June 2016, the gain is 17.1 percent.
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•
Labor Market Indicators Remain Strong Ahead of November Jobs Report
Recent indicators for the labor market from ADP, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, and state unemployment insurance programs remain quite strong, suggesting continuing gains in jobs in the U.S. economy.
-
•
Auto Sales Fell Slightly in November but Remain at a High Level
Auto sales eased back to 17.5 million in November, the second monthly slowing following a hurricane-related surge to 18.6 million in September. Despite the slowing over the latest two months, auto sales remain at a high level by historical comparison.
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•
Real GDP Gain Masks Slowdown in Private Domestic Demand
The advance estimate for third quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) shows 3.0 growth, but that headline number masks a notable slowdown in private domestic demand.