Economic Trends
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Repo Market’s Warning Light is Flickering
Rising repo rates, a shrinking reserve pool, and heavier use of the Fed’s backstop all indicate banks’ “ample reserves” are thinning amid a slow liquidity squeeze.
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The 2025 Nobel in Economics and the Roots of Enduring Growth
As policymakers around the world grapple with slow productivity growth and rising populism, they would do well to revisit the insights of these laureates.
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The OECD’s Warning to America: Economic Growth Is Slipping
The OECD’s projections are a flashing red light, not a prophecy. The fix is clear: spend less, regulate less, and trust people more.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.21 Percent in August 2025
Sticky service costs, moderating but still-present tariff effects, and a softening labor market combine to put pressure on the Fed.
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China’s AI Hype Echoes Mao’s ‘Satellite’ Era
China has no shortage of technical talent. But AI isn’t just about technical skill — it’s about curiosity, questioning assumptions, and challenging authority.
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Business Conditions Monthly April 2025
Hiring is slowing and consumer sentiment is souring, but households and small firms are responding positively to a pause in tariff escalations. The US economy is balancing on a narrowing ledge.
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Waller Isn’t Flinching at Tariff Inflation — Here’s Why
Many at the Fed believe once tariffs raise the price floor, inflation will return to trend, but unemployment and consumer projections vary.
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Modest May 2025 Increase
Disinflationary momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Tariff risks and corporate pricing warnings persist.
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Madison Didn’t Predict the Market as the Last Check on Power
Legislators may be cowed and agencies may be politicized, but financial markets connect policies to their impacts with brisk efficiency.
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2025
A divergence between leading and lagging indicators reveals short-term uncertainty, though the broader economy shows resilience for now.
-
•
Repo Market’s Warning Light is Flickering
Rising repo rates, a shrinking reserve pool, and heavier use of the Fed’s backstop all indicate banks’ “ample reserves” are thinning amid a slow liquidity squeeze.
-
•
The 2025 Nobel in Economics and the Roots of Enduring Growth
As policymakers around the world grapple with slow productivity growth and rising populism, they would do well to revisit the insights of these laureates.
-
•
The OECD’s Warning to America: Economic Growth Is Slipping
The OECD’s projections are a flashing red light, not a prophecy. The fix is clear: spend less, regulate less, and trust people more.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Rises 0.21 Percent in August 2025
Sticky service costs, moderating but still-present tariff effects, and a softening labor market combine to put pressure on the Fed.
-
•
China’s AI Hype Echoes Mao’s ‘Satellite’ Era
China has no shortage of technical talent. But AI isn’t just about technical skill — it’s about curiosity, questioning assumptions, and challenging authority.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly April 2025
Hiring is slowing and consumer sentiment is souring, but households and small firms are responding positively to a pause in tariff escalations. The US economy is balancing on a narrowing ledge.
-
•
Waller Isn’t Flinching at Tariff Inflation — Here’s Why
Many at the Fed believe once tariffs raise the price floor, inflation will return to trend, but unemployment and consumer projections vary.
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees Modest May 2025 Increase
Disinflationary momentum is building, increasing the likelihood of rate cuts this year. Tariff risks and corporate pricing warnings persist.
-
•
Madison Didn’t Predict the Market as the Last Check on Power
Legislators may be cowed and agencies may be politicized, but financial markets connect policies to their impacts with brisk efficiency.
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly January 2025
A divergence between leading and lagging indicators reveals short-term uncertainty, though the broader economy shows resilience for now.