Financial Markets
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Fixing A Big Mistake in Risk-Based Capital Rules
“Both long Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by government agencies are in current regulation included as ‘High Quality Liquid Assets.’ But of course they both can and have created plenty of interest rate risk.” ~Alex J. Pollock
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Business Conditions Monthly January 2024
“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
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The Fed (Almost) Ruined Black Friday
“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell
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Business Conditions Monthly December 2023
“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Seize the Means of Production in a Few Easy Steps
“Slow-motion corporate raiding just doesn’t stir the blood like waving a flag and raising a fist at the barricade or building a guillotine outside Jeff Bezos’s house.” ~Art Carden
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Check Your Economic Hubris
“No matter how glorious it was for Icarus to fly and how well he thought he could do it, reality has a way of punishing excessive hubris.” ~Joakim Book
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The Future of Bitcoin in Light of a Spot ETF
“While the SEC’s long-overdue approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF deserves a bit of celebration, watch out for what’s next. The state apparatus will increasingly treat Bitcoin as a regulated financial product.” ~Emile Phaneuf III
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Business Conditions Monthly November 2023
“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Who’s Winning the Race for Real-Time Payments?
“The extent to which the Federal Reserve will take measures to hold back TCH-RTP’s growth was not yet clear (and maybe it still isn’t). Institutions may be hedging their bets or testing both systems.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
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Business Conditions Monthly October 2023
“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle
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•
Fixing A Big Mistake in Risk-Based Capital Rules
“Both long Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by government agencies are in current regulation included as ‘High Quality Liquid Assets.’ But of course they both can and have created plenty of interest rate risk.” ~Alex J. Pollock
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly January 2024
“In addition to a softening labor market and US consumer activity finally appearing to hit a wall, the potential for shocks of an endogenous or exogenous nature elevated.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
The Fed (Almost) Ruined Black Friday
“A record $1.3 trillion in credit card debt may be masking a weaker economy than the top-line spending numbers suggest, as consumers accrue debt to maintain a standard of living being crushed by rising prices in housing, groceries, and energy.” ~Spence Purnell
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly December 2023
“Inflation expectations have edged higher, raising concerns about the erosion of purchasing power and living standards. In the lead-up to the November presidential elections, policymakers and market participants will closely monitor future economic data releases to gauge the trajectory of inflation and its implications for the broader economy.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Seize the Means of Production in a Few Easy Steps
“Slow-motion corporate raiding just doesn’t stir the blood like waving a flag and raising a fist at the barricade or building a guillotine outside Jeff Bezos’s house.” ~Art Carden
-
•
Check Your Economic Hubris
“No matter how glorious it was for Icarus to fly and how well he thought he could do it, reality has a way of punishing excessive hubris.” ~Joakim Book
-
•
The Future of Bitcoin in Light of a Spot ETF
“While the SEC’s long-overdue approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF deserves a bit of celebration, watch out for what’s next. The state apparatus will increasingly treat Bitcoin as a regulated financial product.” ~Emile Phaneuf III
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly November 2023
“In light of expectations of falling demand and the increased vulnerability of the US economy to geopolitical shocks, our prediction of a US recession by September 2024 stands.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Who’s Winning the Race for Real-Time Payments?
“The extent to which the Federal Reserve will take measures to hold back TCH-RTP’s growth was not yet clear (and maybe it still isn’t). Institutions may be hedging their bets or testing both systems.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
-
•
Business Conditions Monthly October 2023
“While we continue to impartially and vigilantly assess incoming data, our current analysis still points to a recession occurring before September 2024 as the most probable scenario.” ~Peter C. Earle