Inflation
-
•
What the Hell is Inflation Anyway?
“Words mean different things to different people, and their meanings change over time. How we define inflation is a matter of choice, but we must also recognize that choice reflects more fundamental beliefs about how the economy functions.” ~ Michael J. Douma
-
•
Inflation in Oil Prices Will Soon Slow to Zero
“One thing we can confidently project about 2022 is that year-to-year measures of ‘inflation’ in prices of used cars and energy will be near zero by the third quarter, if not below zero. That is nearly a sure thing, baked-in-the cake.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
The Fed’s Higher Fed Funds Rate Projections Mean What?
“It is rarely prudent to assume that a central bank’s central planners can predict the future better than you can, or that they really know what they are doing and why.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
Why the Casual Attitude toward Inflation?
“The threat of inflation has been apparent for some time now, but those who have the power to do something about it seem to have the attitude that it will go away on its own.” ~ Randall G. Holcombe
-
•
Not Hyperinflation, but Plenty Bad Enough
“We see the seeds of this already in the intellectually bankrupt Modern Monetary Theory. MMT boils down to a simple policy prescription: politicians should feel free to print as much money as they want. That’s a recipe for hyperinflation.” ~ Antony Davies
-
•
The Horrors Of A Noninflationary Thanksgiving
“Thanksgiving is arriving against a backdrop of worry and complaints, as CPI inflation is up 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. Monetary policy alchemists are forcing Americans to reconsider long-held traditions this year.” ~ Peter C. Earle
-
•
Is Our Current Inflation Temporary? Look at the Numbers
“John Williams, the New York Fed President, is expecting 3% inflation this year. I’m expecting inflation in 2021 to be above 5%. In six months, we’ll be able to look at the actual numbers and see whose estimate was closer.” ~ Randall G. Holcombe
-
•
Higher Inflation Depresses Equity Valuation
“The CPI will probably increase by 3-5% for all of 2021. That is not nearly as bad as the 1970s, when the rate averaged 7.4% p.a. (and peaked at 13.3% in late 1979), but it’s still bad for equity valuations.” ~ Richard M. Salsman
-
•
Does “Expected Inflation” Explain or Predict Inflation?
“There might be higher inflation ahead, but neither year-to-year CPI changes, the 2020 lockdowns, or news-based monthly opinion polls about expected inflation provide reliable advance clues about what lies ahead. Meanwhile, the low break-even rate offers a good reason to be skeptical of high inflation forecasts.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
The Horrors of Hyperinflation
“Governments have few universally accepted goals. National defense, protection of property, and stability of the unit of account are arguably the three most important because all else rides on them. Hyperinflation destroys all three, so any serious risk of hyperinflation is simply unacceptable from a policy standpoint.” ~ Robert E. Wright
-
•
What the Hell is Inflation Anyway?
“Words mean different things to different people, and their meanings change over time. How we define inflation is a matter of choice, but we must also recognize that choice reflects more fundamental beliefs about how the economy functions.” ~ Michael J. Douma
-
•
Inflation in Oil Prices Will Soon Slow to Zero
“One thing we can confidently project about 2022 is that year-to-year measures of ‘inflation’ in prices of used cars and energy will be near zero by the third quarter, if not below zero. That is nearly a sure thing, baked-in-the cake.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
The Fed’s Higher Fed Funds Rate Projections Mean What?
“It is rarely prudent to assume that a central bank’s central planners can predict the future better than you can, or that they really know what they are doing and why.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
Why the Casual Attitude toward Inflation?
“The threat of inflation has been apparent for some time now, but those who have the power to do something about it seem to have the attitude that it will go away on its own.” ~ Randall G. Holcombe
-
•
Not Hyperinflation, but Plenty Bad Enough
“We see the seeds of this already in the intellectually bankrupt Modern Monetary Theory. MMT boils down to a simple policy prescription: politicians should feel free to print as much money as they want. That’s a recipe for hyperinflation.” ~ Antony Davies
-
•
The Horrors Of A Noninflationary Thanksgiving
“Thanksgiving is arriving against a backdrop of worry and complaints, as CPI inflation is up 6.2% on a year-over-year basis. Monetary policy alchemists are forcing Americans to reconsider long-held traditions this year.” ~ Peter C. Earle
-
•
Is Our Current Inflation Temporary? Look at the Numbers
“John Williams, the New York Fed President, is expecting 3% inflation this year. I’m expecting inflation in 2021 to be above 5%. In six months, we’ll be able to look at the actual numbers and see whose estimate was closer.” ~ Randall G. Holcombe
-
•
Higher Inflation Depresses Equity Valuation
“The CPI will probably increase by 3-5% for all of 2021. That is not nearly as bad as the 1970s, when the rate averaged 7.4% p.a. (and peaked at 13.3% in late 1979), but it’s still bad for equity valuations.” ~ Richard M. Salsman
-
•
Does “Expected Inflation” Explain or Predict Inflation?
“There might be higher inflation ahead, but neither year-to-year CPI changes, the 2020 lockdowns, or news-based monthly opinion polls about expected inflation provide reliable advance clues about what lies ahead. Meanwhile, the low break-even rate offers a good reason to be skeptical of high inflation forecasts.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
The Horrors of Hyperinflation
“Governments have few universally accepted goals. National defense, protection of property, and stability of the unit of account are arguably the three most important because all else rides on them. Hyperinflation destroys all three, so any serious risk of hyperinflation is simply unacceptable from a policy standpoint.” ~ Robert E. Wright