Monetary Policy
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Inflation Remained Low in April, But How Long Can Monetary Policy Remain Tight?
By undershooting its inflation target after clearly stating it would not do so, the Fed risks surprising the public—and perhaps triggering a recession.
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Regime Uncertainty and Market Uncertainty
When political rhetoric or fiscal policies threaten property rights or increase instability, private investors tend to withdraw.
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When Will The Fed Cut Interest Rates?
The Fed should seek to avoid its recent mistakes, and keep nominal spending on a stable trajectory. FOMC predicts rates will be 50 basis points lower by the end of 2025.
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Central Banks Forgot What Drives Inflation —Tim Congdon Didn’t
Tim Congdon’s ‘The Quantity Theory of Money: A New Restatement’ is a crucial contribution to economic thought.
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April’s Prices Rose, But Inflation Cooled Overall
Energy costs prices pushed prices up, but the money supply is probably increasing as fast as it ought to.
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Fed Holds Steady as Tariff Storm Looms
The Fed seems confident it can hold inflation near two percent, but the full impact of tariffs on prices and employment remains unknowable.
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Termination Day at the Fed? Probably Not
Any attempt to unseat the chair or compromise the Fed’s independence would publicly weaken the institution.
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Turning Treasury Securities into Century Bonds Is a Dead End
While the idea of reducing interest costs by converting existing debt into ultra-long, low-yielding bonds might sound like a creative solution to America’s debt challenges, it fails every test of financial realism.
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Milei’s Battle Against Argentina’s Currency Trap
Javier Milei is slowly unwinding the currency intervention and price control policies that restrict Argentines’ access to investments.
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Consumer Prices Fall in March
Both headline and core inflation are heading in the right direction. But the Fed shouldn’t overcorrect after a single month of falling prices.
-
•
Inflation Remained Low in April, But How Long Can Monetary Policy Remain Tight?
By undershooting its inflation target after clearly stating it would not do so, the Fed risks surprising the public—and perhaps triggering a recession.
-
•
Regime Uncertainty and Market Uncertainty
When political rhetoric or fiscal policies threaten property rights or increase instability, private investors tend to withdraw.
-
•
When Will The Fed Cut Interest Rates?
The Fed should seek to avoid its recent mistakes, and keep nominal spending on a stable trajectory. FOMC predicts rates will be 50 basis points lower by the end of 2025.
-
•
Central Banks Forgot What Drives Inflation —Tim Congdon Didn’t
Tim Congdon’s ‘The Quantity Theory of Money: A New Restatement’ is a crucial contribution to economic thought.
-
•
April’s Prices Rose, But Inflation Cooled Overall
Energy costs prices pushed prices up, but the money supply is probably increasing as fast as it ought to.
-
•
Fed Holds Steady as Tariff Storm Looms
The Fed seems confident it can hold inflation near two percent, but the full impact of tariffs on prices and employment remains unknowable.
-
•
Termination Day at the Fed? Probably Not
Any attempt to unseat the chair or compromise the Fed’s independence would publicly weaken the institution.
-
•
Turning Treasury Securities into Century Bonds Is a Dead End
While the idea of reducing interest costs by converting existing debt into ultra-long, low-yielding bonds might sound like a creative solution to America’s debt challenges, it fails every test of financial realism.
-
•
Milei’s Battle Against Argentina’s Currency Trap
Javier Milei is slowly unwinding the currency intervention and price control policies that restrict Argentines’ access to investments.
-
•
Consumer Prices Fall in March
Both headline and core inflation are heading in the right direction. But the Fed shouldn’t overcorrect after a single month of falling prices.