Monetary Policy
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Disinflation is Welcome, but the Fed’s Job Isn’t Done
“The Fed may not need to tighten any further, depending on how markets continue to react to its recent policy changes. But this is no time for complacency.’ ~ Alexander W. Salter
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The Inverted Yield Curve and Next US Recession
“When will the start of the next recession be recognized? On average since 1980 the NBER has waited eight months before assigning a starting date (and fifteen months to assign ending dates), so if the next recession were to begin in early 2024 it might be publicized by August.”
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Are GOP Presidential Contenders Prepared to Take On the Fed?
“There’s no time to lose. Aspiring Republicans must get serious about fixing the Fed.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Waller Offers Common Sense View on Financial Risks of Climate Change
“Climate-related innovation does not seem to pose a unique risk to the financial system. And lenders have a long history of adapting to technological innovation.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
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We Are Measuring Inflation All Wrong: Non-Housing Inflation is Very Low
“Lagged OER and rent overstated inflation by more than two percentage points over the past ten months – raising it to 3.3 percent from 0.6 percent.” ~ Alan Reynolds
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Has the Disinflation Process Stalled?
“Fed officials may worry that the disinflation process has stalled. For this reason, the latest data likely increases uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy.” ~ William J. Luther
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What’s Next for the Fed?
“A wide range of outcomes are still possible for 2023, ranging from stagflation to a ‘soft landing.'” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
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Three Proposals for Price Stability
“As a ‘dark horse’ candidate, Ramaswamy has a greater burden of proof before the electorate. He needs to prove his policy proposals are a cut above his rivals’.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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How Congress Should Reform the Fed
“Congress should narrow the Fed’s regulatory concerns to maintaining adequate bank capital. It should also consider abolishing the discount window entirely.” ~ Alexander William Salter
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Can the Fed Continue to Fight Inflation without Risking a Financial Crisis?
“In principle, the Fed has the ability to provide liquidity to the banking system while simultaneously reducing the incentives banks have to make loans.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
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•
Disinflation is Welcome, but the Fed’s Job Isn’t Done
“The Fed may not need to tighten any further, depending on how markets continue to react to its recent policy changes. But this is no time for complacency.’ ~ Alexander W. Salter
-
•
The Inverted Yield Curve and Next US Recession
“When will the start of the next recession be recognized? On average since 1980 the NBER has waited eight months before assigning a starting date (and fifteen months to assign ending dates), so if the next recession were to begin in early 2024 it might be publicized by August.”
-
•
Are GOP Presidential Contenders Prepared to Take On the Fed?
“There’s no time to lose. Aspiring Republicans must get serious about fixing the Fed.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Waller Offers Common Sense View on Financial Risks of Climate Change
“Climate-related innovation does not seem to pose a unique risk to the financial system. And lenders have a long history of adapting to technological innovation.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger
-
•
We Are Measuring Inflation All Wrong: Non-Housing Inflation is Very Low
“Lagged OER and rent overstated inflation by more than two percentage points over the past ten months – raising it to 3.3 percent from 0.6 percent.” ~ Alan Reynolds
-
•
Has the Disinflation Process Stalled?
“Fed officials may worry that the disinflation process has stalled. For this reason, the latest data likely increases uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy.” ~ William J. Luther
-
•
What’s Next for the Fed?
“A wide range of outcomes are still possible for 2023, ranging from stagflation to a ‘soft landing.'” ~ Thomas L. Hogan
-
•
Three Proposals for Price Stability
“As a ‘dark horse’ candidate, Ramaswamy has a greater burden of proof before the electorate. He needs to prove his policy proposals are a cut above his rivals’.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
-
•
How Congress Should Reform the Fed
“Congress should narrow the Fed’s regulatory concerns to maintaining adequate bank capital. It should also consider abolishing the discount window entirely.” ~ Alexander William Salter
-
•
Can the Fed Continue to Fight Inflation without Risking a Financial Crisis?
“In principle, the Fed has the ability to provide liquidity to the banking system while simultaneously reducing the incentives banks have to make loans.” ~ Bryan Cutsinger