Monetary Policy
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Lots of New Money, But Still-Low Inflation. What Gives?
“Just because a reckless central bank foists tons of fake money on banks, businesses, and households does not mean any of them must spend it. Fiscal-monetary recklessness itself can signal private-sector actors not to part with safe, liquid assets. Eventually, of course, they may choose to flee the money and the debt, bringing higher inflation…
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Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?
“If bond yields cannot rise, the stock market will remain supported unless stagflation sets in. Should that transpire, the Fed will need to decide whether to ignore inflation and increase monetary stimulus, including the purchase of ETFs and common stock, in order to maintain full employment, or ‘hold’ and witness a politically unpalatable clearing of…
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Where New Zealand Goes, the World Goes
“In the 1990s New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting, an approach that every major country followed for the next three decades. In a few years we might look back at this fleeting Kiwi attempt at incorporating asset markets into monetary policy with the same admiring eyes that we now see their move to inflation targeting. Where…
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MMT’s Inflation Battle Will End In A Draw
“Maybe this time is different, and perhaps this is the turning point – for MMT or for inflation. More likely, the fears and the ebullient promises will converge in a middle-of-the-way third option similar to what we saw after 2008: Politicians, pundits, economists, and central bankers talk, yet nothing much happens.” ~ Joakim Book
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Inflation Outlook: Likely Worse Than Expected
“The Fed has painted itself into a box, because if inflation/velocity does heat up beyond what the Fed or markets can tolerate, given that they have been comfortable with somewhat higher long-term rates, the Fed’s only weapon to slow inflation down would be to slow down the economy. Its strongest weapon would be to threaten…
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Central Banking and the Heavy Hand of the State
“The ‘need’ for a central bank is due to economists inaccurately projecting onto historical banking systems their contemporary monetary-macroeconomic paradigms, not any fatal flaw in these systems. Neither theory nor history show we need a central bank to guarantee optimal economic performance.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
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Will the Fed’s “Feelgood” Medicine Cause an Economic Collapse?
“The promise of cheap money leading to perpetual asset price sunshine may seem like a reality today. Tomorrow the consequences will be like Dr. Feelgood’s needles. To avoid the worst, markets—not politicians or bureaucrats, must be free to uncover the real cost of borrowing money.” ~ Barry Brownstein
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Monetary Policy is Pushing Americans, Kicking and Screaming, Up the Risk Curve
“Gamestop is only a symptom. The size and frequency of monetary policy interventions is pushing investors further and further up the risk curve.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Who’s to Blame for the Rash of Short Squeezes?
“Cantillon Effects, not overzealous short selling or swarming retail traders, are the ultimate cause of the rash of explosive short squeezes in US equity markets.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Exit the Bond Vigilantes, Enter the Crypto Vigilantes
“With the heightened pace and expanded scope of economic intervention over the last ten or fifteen years, the avenues through which markets can respond to government policies have been blunted. But fortunately for the genius of Satoshi Nakamoto, where the bond vigilantes once stood––and may someday return––now stand the crypto vigilantes.” ~ Peter C. Earle
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Lots of New Money, But Still-Low Inflation. What Gives?
“Just because a reckless central bank foists tons of fake money on banks, businesses, and households does not mean any of them must spend it. Fiscal-monetary recklessness itself can signal private-sector actors not to part with safe, liquid assets. Eventually, of course, they may choose to flee the money and the debt, bringing higher inflation…
-
•
Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?
“If bond yields cannot rise, the stock market will remain supported unless stagflation sets in. Should that transpire, the Fed will need to decide whether to ignore inflation and increase monetary stimulus, including the purchase of ETFs and common stock, in order to maintain full employment, or ‘hold’ and witness a politically unpalatable clearing of…
-
•
Where New Zealand Goes, the World Goes
“In the 1990s New Zealand pioneered inflation targeting, an approach that every major country followed for the next three decades. In a few years we might look back at this fleeting Kiwi attempt at incorporating asset markets into monetary policy with the same admiring eyes that we now see their move to inflation targeting. Where…
-
•
MMT’s Inflation Battle Will End In A Draw
“Maybe this time is different, and perhaps this is the turning point – for MMT or for inflation. More likely, the fears and the ebullient promises will converge in a middle-of-the-way third option similar to what we saw after 2008: Politicians, pundits, economists, and central bankers talk, yet nothing much happens.” ~ Joakim Book
-
•
Inflation Outlook: Likely Worse Than Expected
“The Fed has painted itself into a box, because if inflation/velocity does heat up beyond what the Fed or markets can tolerate, given that they have been comfortable with somewhat higher long-term rates, the Fed’s only weapon to slow inflation down would be to slow down the economy. Its strongest weapon would be to threaten…
-
•
Central Banking and the Heavy Hand of the State
“The ‘need’ for a central bank is due to economists inaccurately projecting onto historical banking systems their contemporary monetary-macroeconomic paradigms, not any fatal flaw in these systems. Neither theory nor history show we need a central bank to guarantee optimal economic performance.” ~ Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Will the Fed’s “Feelgood” Medicine Cause an Economic Collapse?
“The promise of cheap money leading to perpetual asset price sunshine may seem like a reality today. Tomorrow the consequences will be like Dr. Feelgood’s needles. To avoid the worst, markets—not politicians or bureaucrats, must be free to uncover the real cost of borrowing money.” ~ Barry Brownstein
-
•
Monetary Policy is Pushing Americans, Kicking and Screaming, Up the Risk Curve
“Gamestop is only a symptom. The size and frequency of monetary policy interventions is pushing investors further and further up the risk curve.” ~ Peter C. Earle
-
•
Who’s to Blame for the Rash of Short Squeezes?
“Cantillon Effects, not overzealous short selling or swarming retail traders, are the ultimate cause of the rash of explosive short squeezes in US equity markets.” ~ Peter C. Earle
-
•
Exit the Bond Vigilantes, Enter the Crypto Vigilantes
“With the heightened pace and expanded scope of economic intervention over the last ten or fifteen years, the avenues through which markets can respond to government policies have been blunted. But fortunately for the genius of Satoshi Nakamoto, where the bond vigilantes once stood––and may someday return––now stand the crypto vigilantes.” ~ Peter C. Earle