Monetary Economics
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The Federal Reserve and Pandora’s Box
“In the name of preventing a second Great Depression, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke opened a Pandora’s Box of monetary ills in 2008. And like the Greek myth, there may be no way of putting these ills back in the box.” ~Paul Mueller
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Moderate Inflation Returns in July
“To judge whether monetary policy is loose, it is not enough to show that monetary aggregates are growing at historically low rates. What matters is whether the money supply is growing faster than money demand.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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There’s Nothing Conservative about Deficits and Debt
“Interest payments now suck up more of the federal budget, leaving less to spend on important political priorities. Since Republicans and Democrats disagree about what those priorities are, the resulting fiscal strain amplifies partisan divisions.” ~Alexander W. Salter
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Should the Fed Get Credit for Lower Inflation?
“Labor market developments cannot explain the decline in nominal spending growth. Tighter monetary policy can… Given the lags of monetary policy, the Fed may have already undershot its target.” ~William J. Luther
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Milei’s New Monetary Regime for Argentina
“Despite its controversial nature, full dollarization remains the monetary regime with the most potential for long-term stability in Argentina. It offers a credible pathway to restore confidence and put the country back on a sustainable economic trajectory.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
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Consumer Prices Decline in June
“Interest rates tell us monetary policy is very tight. The money supply tells us monetary policy is somewhat tight. Will the Fed interpret recent data as a signal it’s time to pivot?” ~Alexander W. Salter
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees First Decline in 2024
“In June, US inflation slowed to its lowest rate since 2021 primarily due to a significant deceleration in housing costs. June data bolsters the likelihood of rate cuts, potentially beginning in September.” ~Peter C. Earle
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June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?
“This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting that the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
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Politicizing Monetary Policy Won’t Fix the Fed’s Failings
“Even if one thinks Trump is well-suited to make interest rate decisions (and there is little reason to think he is), it does not follow that Trump’s proposed solution would improve monetary policy.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
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Dollar Dominance, Dollar Dependence
“Skeptics to the global monetary hegemon have long called for its demise — on causes of design or ideology, theory or empirics. And for decades, they have been proven wrong.” ~Joakim Book
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•
The Federal Reserve and Pandora’s Box
“In the name of preventing a second Great Depression, then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke opened a Pandora’s Box of monetary ills in 2008. And like the Greek myth, there may be no way of putting these ills back in the box.” ~Paul Mueller
-
•
Moderate Inflation Returns in July
“To judge whether monetary policy is loose, it is not enough to show that monetary aggregates are growing at historically low rates. What matters is whether the money supply is growing faster than money demand.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
There’s Nothing Conservative about Deficits and Debt
“Interest payments now suck up more of the federal budget, leaving less to spend on important political priorities. Since Republicans and Democrats disagree about what those priorities are, the resulting fiscal strain amplifies partisan divisions.” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
Should the Fed Get Credit for Lower Inflation?
“Labor market developments cannot explain the decline in nominal spending growth. Tighter monetary policy can… Given the lags of monetary policy, the Fed may have already undershot its target.” ~William J. Luther
-
•
Milei’s New Monetary Regime for Argentina
“Despite its controversial nature, full dollarization remains the monetary regime with the most potential for long-term stability in Argentina. It offers a credible pathway to restore confidence and put the country back on a sustainable economic trajectory.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
-
•
Consumer Prices Decline in June
“Interest rates tell us monetary policy is very tight. The money supply tells us monetary policy is somewhat tight. Will the Fed interpret recent data as a signal it’s time to pivot?” ~Alexander W. Salter
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sees First Decline in 2024
“In June, US inflation slowed to its lowest rate since 2021 primarily due to a significant deceleration in housing costs. June data bolsters the likelihood of rate cuts, potentially beginning in September.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
June U-3 Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Ahead?
“This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting that the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession.” ~Peter C. Earle
-
•
Politicizing Monetary Policy Won’t Fix the Fed’s Failings
“Even if one thinks Trump is well-suited to make interest rate decisions (and there is little reason to think he is), it does not follow that Trump’s proposed solution would improve monetary policy.” ~Nicolás Cachanosky
-
•
Dollar Dominance, Dollar Dependence
“Skeptics to the global monetary hegemon have long called for its demise — on causes of design or ideology, theory or empirics. And for decades, they have been proven wrong.” ~Joakim Book