Daily Economy
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Our Economic Index Moves Into Positive Territory
Our index of leading indicators moved back above 50 for the first time since January, reflecting a more positive tilt to recent economic data. That’s according to our October edition of Business Conditions Monthly, which we are releasing today. However, as we cautioned when our index first fell below 50, one month does not make…
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Showcasing Teach-the-Teachers in Phoenix
Photo by Natalia V. Smirnova Last week I attended the Council for Economic Education’s 55th Annual Financial Literacy and Economic Education Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. Every year this conference gathers K–12 educators, council affiliates from across the country, Federal Reserve partners, and other educators. AIER collaborates with the council’s regional affiliates, as well as other…
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Social Security Benefit Adjustment: Why This Year is Unique
Yesterday, we reported our forecast that the cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security for 2017 would likely be between 0.2-0.5 percent, or $2-6 added to the average monthly Social Security payment. We are forecasting the smallest adjustment to the “COLA” on record. Today, let’s shine a light on how we came to that conclusion. The Social…
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COLA: We Forecast Tiny Social Security Benefit Increase
The American Institute for Economic Research is forecasting the smallest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment since that administration began automatic annual adjustments in the 1970s. We are forecasting with 90 percent confidence that when the increase is announced on Oct. 18, it will be between 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent. Our senior research fellow Max Gulker…
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A Solid, Not Spectacular Jobs Report
A solid though not spectacular September Employment Report suggests the economy is maintaining positive momentum heading into the fourth quarter. Accelerating wage gains on top of a good pace of jobs growth should provide support for further increases in consumer spending in the final quarter of the year. Economic growth should be stronger in the…
-
The Shrinking Middle Class
The United States has the smallest middle class among nine major developed countries, according to a new research brief released this week by the American Institute for Economic Research. In the brief, author Steven Pressman points to how many different definitions there have been of the middle class, and develops his own definition. He defined…
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Can Body Language Help Get a Small Business Loan?
One finding of my research on small businesses earlier this year is that they are better than their larger competitors at responding to so-called “soft” information. In larger firms, information often must be communicated through several hierarchical layers to a centralized decision maker; in small businesses, the decision maker is typically more closely linked to…
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Good News and Somewhat Good News
The monthly economic data cycle kicked off with two early reads on activity for September. First is the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, a survey of purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers. The composite PMI rebounded to 51.5 from 49.4 in August. Readings above 50 suggest expansion, and readings below 50 suggest…
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Teamwork: In the Classroom vs. the Workplace
In my previous post, I described the different approaches to problem solving in the workplace as compared to the academic classroom. Today I want to emphasize another important difference between the classroom and the workplace: the role of teamwork. In his book “Engaged Learning in the Academy”, David Moore of New York University postulates that…
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Money Magazine Features AIER’s Retirement Withdrawal Calculator
Our Retirement Withdrawal Calculator was featured in Money Magazine on Thursday, as part of Walter Updegrave’s story on making sure you’ve taken the proper steps to prepare for retirement. His story urges readers to consider three things when preparing for retirement: saving enough, investing reasonably, and preparing a plan for how much you’ll withdraw each…
-
Our Economic Index Moves Into Positive Territory
Our index of leading indicators moved back above 50 for the first time since January, reflecting a more positive tilt to recent economic data. That’s according to our October edition of Business Conditions Monthly, which we are releasing today. However, as we cautioned when our index first fell below 50, one month does not make…
-
Showcasing Teach-the-Teachers in Phoenix
Photo by Natalia V. Smirnova Last week I attended the Council for Economic Education’s 55th Annual Financial Literacy and Economic Education Conference in Phoenix, Arizona. Every year this conference gathers K–12 educators, council affiliates from across the country, Federal Reserve partners, and other educators. AIER collaborates with the council’s regional affiliates, as well as other…
-
Social Security Benefit Adjustment: Why This Year is Unique
Yesterday, we reported our forecast that the cost-of-living adjustment to Social Security for 2017 would likely be between 0.2-0.5 percent, or $2-6 added to the average monthly Social Security payment. We are forecasting the smallest adjustment to the “COLA” on record. Today, let’s shine a light on how we came to that conclusion. The Social…
-
COLA: We Forecast Tiny Social Security Benefit Increase
The American Institute for Economic Research is forecasting the smallest Social Security cost-of-living adjustment since that administration began automatic annual adjustments in the 1970s. We are forecasting with 90 percent confidence that when the increase is announced on Oct. 18, it will be between 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent. Our senior research fellow Max Gulker…
-
A Solid, Not Spectacular Jobs Report
A solid though not spectacular September Employment Report suggests the economy is maintaining positive momentum heading into the fourth quarter. Accelerating wage gains on top of a good pace of jobs growth should provide support for further increases in consumer spending in the final quarter of the year. Economic growth should be stronger in the…
-
The Shrinking Middle Class
The United States has the smallest middle class among nine major developed countries, according to a new research brief released this week by the American Institute for Economic Research. In the brief, author Steven Pressman points to how many different definitions there have been of the middle class, and develops his own definition. He defined…
-
Can Body Language Help Get a Small Business Loan?
One finding of my research on small businesses earlier this year is that they are better than their larger competitors at responding to so-called “soft” information. In larger firms, information often must be communicated through several hierarchical layers to a centralized decision maker; in small businesses, the decision maker is typically more closely linked to…
-
Good News and Somewhat Good News
The monthly economic data cycle kicked off with two early reads on activity for September. First is the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index, or PMI, a survey of purchasing managers at U.S. manufacturers. The composite PMI rebounded to 51.5 from 49.4 in August. Readings above 50 suggest expansion, and readings below 50 suggest…
-
Teamwork: In the Classroom vs. the Workplace
In my previous post, I described the different approaches to problem solving in the workplace as compared to the academic classroom. Today I want to emphasize another important difference between the classroom and the workplace: the role of teamwork. In his book “Engaged Learning in the Academy”, David Moore of New York University postulates that…
-
Money Magazine Features AIER’s Retirement Withdrawal Calculator
Our Retirement Withdrawal Calculator was featured in Money Magazine on Thursday, as part of Walter Updegrave’s story on making sure you’ve taken the proper steps to prepare for retirement. His story urges readers to consider three things when preparing for retirement: saving enough, investing reasonably, and preparing a plan for how much you’ll withdraw each…
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