The holiday season is once again upon us, and for economists that means not just celebrations but the opportunity to examine how specific categories of prices have evolved over the course of a year (and longer). For several years we have tracked Thanksgiving and year-end holiday costs, and this year added the cost of Super Bowl festivities to our periodic review.

Monitoring the prices of holiday-related goods and services provides a means for inferring inflation’s impact beyond rising costs. With rising expenses, traditions give way to the practicalities of survival. Cultural touchstones are pushed aside for pressing material concerns and altered spending habits, institutional losses that persist even after economic conditions stabilize.

This index focuses on six relevant US Consumer Price Index subcategories: turkey (and other poultry); sauces and gravies; bread, rolls, and biscuits; canned fruit; frozen vegetables; and pies and cakes. Below are the trends in those prices. First, in recent year-over-year periods since the inflationary period began in late 2020, and below that in the aggregate pre-inflation, post-inflation, and ten-year timeframes. 

		Nov 2020	Nov 2021	Nov 2022	Nov 2023
Category		to Nov 2021 (%)	to Nov 2022 (%)	to Nov 2023 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)
CPI Turkey (other poultry) NSA		4.6	17.9	5.0	-0.8
CPI Sauces & Gravies NSA		3.3	13.7	8.0	0.6
CPI Canned Fruits NSA		0.0	20.9	1.9	0.4
CPI Frozen Vegetables NSA		0.5	18.3	6.1	2.4
CPI Bread NSA		4.0	15.7	3.7	0.6
CPI Pies Tarts Bakery Products NSA		6.5	19.4	2.0	1.2
		Nov 2014	Nov 2020	Nov 2014
Category		to Nov 2020 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)
CPI Turkey (other poultry) NSA		3.7	28.5	33.3
CPI Sauces & Gravies NSA		10	27.6	40.4
CPI Canned Fruits NSA		10.1	23.7	36.2
CPI Frozen Vegetables NSA		4.9	29.1	35.4
CPI Bread NSA		9.5	25.6	37.5
CPI Pies Tarts Bakery Products NSA		0.3	31.3	31.7

Below, the aggregate Thanksgiving Cost Index in the pre-inflation, post-inflation, and ten-year timeframe is shown against the CPI indices for food-at-home and food-away-from-home. 

	Nov 2014	Nov 2020	Nov 2014
Category	to Nov 2020 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)
AIER Thanksgiving Cost Index	3.8	27.3	32.1
CPI Food-at-home (NSA)	3.7	23.1	27.6
CPI Food-away-from-home (NSA)	18.4	24.9	47.8

A few observations. First and most notably, deflation in turkey prices over the past 12 months. Consumer demand has shifted away from turkeys outside of Thanksgiving as Americans opt for alternative proteins like beef and pork. Despite a 6 percent drop in production caused by avian influenza outbreaks, turkey inventories have increased by 4 percent year-over-year, adding to supply amid waning demand. Furthermore, the poultry industry’s effective measures to control avian influenza have stabilized turkey supplies, mitigating pressures that could have driven prices higher. And retailers are contributing to the slide by using turkeys as “loss leaders,” offering them at discounted prices to attract customers who purchase additional items. In dollar terms, the Farm Bureau estimates that the cost of a turkey for ten has fallen from $61.17 to $58.08 since Thanksgiving 2023. 

AIER Thanksgiving Cost Index vs. US CPI Meals-at-home and US CPI Meals-away-from-home (2014 – 2024) 

Also evident is that disinflation in the six constituent categories of the Thanksgiving Cost Index is, with the exception of frozen vegetables (and deflation in turkeys), all below the Fed’s target range. That is a welcome change, considering that prices of over sixty categories of goods and services in the core CPI are still rising at a 4 percent (or higher) year-over-year rate. And finally, while over the past ten years the cost of Thanksgiving dinners have risen 32.1 percent, that’s less than the price increases associated with eating in restaurants (47.8 percent) but substantially more than the rise in meals consumed at home (27.6 percent).

How have prices peripheral to but still fundamentally linked with Thanksgiving fared since last year and compared to recent years? Specifically, those for gasoline, airline tickets, “other” intercity transportation (buses, train), haircuts and personal care, laundry and dry cleaning, and pet services (which includes boarding)?

	Nov 2020	Nov 2021	Nov 2022	Nov 2023	Nov 2020
Category	to Nov 2021 (%)	to Nov 2022 (%)	to Nov 2023 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)	to Oct 2024 (%)
Avg Unleaded Gas per Gallon ($)	50.6	13.8	-9.5	-6.3	45.3
CPI Gasoline Unleaded (NSA)	60.1	9.8	-9.3	-5.4	50.7
CPI Airline Fare (NSA)	-3.7	36	-12.1	3.4	19.1
CPI Other Intercity Transportation (NSA)	2.4	1.6	-0.2	-4.1	-0.5
CPI Haircuts and Personal Care Services (NSA)	4.4	6.8	3.9	4.2	20.8
CPI Laundry and Dry Cleaning (NSA)	7.5	7.9	5.2	5.0	28.2
CPI Pet Services Incl. Veterinary (NSA)	4.2	10.9	6.4	6.4	30.9

With the exception of intercity transportation, prices surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday – indeed any holiday – have risen substantially since 2020. And although gasoline prices have fallen since late 2023, the prices of services ranging from pet care to laundry are up twice what the overall inflation indices suggest over the past 12 months. 

Giving thanks in the traditional American way is mindful, salutary, and increasingly expensive. Whether hosting or attending, Thanksgiving’s financial demands remain substantial despite a deceleration in price increases. The Federal Reserve’s tight monetary policies since 2022 have brought some relief, but have yet to fully ease the budgetary strain for many households. As the five-year mark since the onset of massive COVID-era monetary and fiscal interventions nears, affordability has improved in some areas but continues to challenge American consumers. If exit polls following the recent election do not make this abundantly clear, the above data should.