Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Weekly Initial Claims Hit the Highest Level Since January
“Weekly initial claims continue to trend slightly higher, but the low level still suggests a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Warning Flags for Home Construction
“Single-family starts and permits fell in April. Surging mortgage rates and record home prices are major headwinds for demand, and when combined with elevated commodity costs, are pummeling homebuilder sentiment.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Industrial Output Posts Fourth Consecutive Strong Gain
“Industrial output rose again in April, the fourth solid gain in a row. However, shortages continue, sustaining upward pressure on prices. Combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, and a new Fed tightening cycle, the risks to the economy remain significant.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Retail Sales Post Strong Gains in April
“Retail sales rose in April and revised data suggest a stronger trend recently. However, significant threats to the economy remain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Inflation Fears Send Consumer Sentiment Sharply Lower in Early May
“Consumer sentiment sank in early May and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Have Started to Trend Higher but Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level
“Weekly initial claims have trended slightly higher recently but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Food Prices Send AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in April
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in April led by food prices. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China are threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Private Payrolls Add 406,000 Jobs in April
“Payroll gains remained strong in April, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and renewed lockdowns in China are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims Hit an Eleven-Week High but Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level
“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since February but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Unit Auto Sales Rose in April, but Remain Low
“Light-vehicle sales rose in April but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies rose in March, but component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims Hit the Highest Level Since January
“Weekly initial claims continue to trend slightly higher, but the low level still suggests a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Warning Flags for Home Construction
“Single-family starts and permits fell in April. Surging mortgage rates and record home prices are major headwinds for demand, and when combined with elevated commodity costs, are pummeling homebuilder sentiment.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Industrial Output Posts Fourth Consecutive Strong Gain
“Industrial output rose again in April, the fourth solid gain in a row. However, shortages continue, sustaining upward pressure on prices. Combined with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, and a new Fed tightening cycle, the risks to the economy remain significant.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Retail Sales Post Strong Gains in April
“Retail sales rose in April and revised data suggest a stronger trend recently. However, significant threats to the economy remain. Caution is warranted.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Inflation Fears Send Consumer Sentiment Sharply Lower in Early May
“Consumer sentiment sank in early May and is consistent with prior recessions. Inflation is a driver of weakening consumer attitudes and contributing to elevated risks. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims Have Started to Trend Higher but Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level
“Weekly initial claims have trended slightly higher recently but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Food Prices Send AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up 0.5 Percent in April
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in April led by food prices. Sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and lockdowns in China are threats to the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Private Payrolls Add 406,000 Jobs in April
“Payroll gains remained strong in April, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and renewed lockdowns in China are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims Hit an Eleven-Week High but Remain Below the Pre-Pandemic Level
“Weekly initial claims rose to the highest level since February but continue to suggest a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, renewed lockdowns in China, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle remain risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Unit Auto Sales Rose in April, but Remain Low
“Light-vehicle sales rose in April but remain well below pre-pandemic ranges. Assemblies rose in March, but component shortages continue to restrain production. Inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes