Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Home Construction Remained Robust in March but Headwinds Are Gaining Strength
“Single-family starts and permits were off in March while multifamily rose; all remain at solid levels. Surging mortgage rates and elevated home prices are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Strong Gain in Industrial Output in March
“Industrial output rose again in March. However, a range of economic and geopolitical issues continue to restrain the ability of manufacturers to meet the significantly higher demand that has emerged following the lockdown recession.” ~ Robert Hughes
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A Bounce in Expectations Pushed Consumer Sentiment Up in Early April
“Consumer sentiment bounced higher in early April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Expectations jumped on a decline in gas prices, but economic risks remain elevated. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Real Retail Sales Are Trending Flat
“Retail sales rose in March but fell after adjusting for price changes. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a new Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near Record Lows
“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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AIER’s Everyday Price Index Surges 3.0 Percent in March
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Services-Sector Shows Improvement in March
“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Auto Industry Struggles Continued in March
“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Slower Expansion but Increased Price Pressures in March
“Manufacturing-sector demand expanded at a slower pace in March and price pressures intensified. Ongoing labor and logistical issues continue to restrain output and recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private Payrolls Add 426,000 Jobs in March
“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Home Construction Remained Robust in March but Headwinds Are Gaining Strength
“Single-family starts and permits were off in March while multifamily rose; all remain at solid levels. Surging mortgage rates and elevated home prices are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Strong Gain in Industrial Output in March
“Industrial output rose again in March. However, a range of economic and geopolitical issues continue to restrain the ability of manufacturers to meet the significantly higher demand that has emerged following the lockdown recession.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
A Bounce in Expectations Pushed Consumer Sentiment Up in Early April
“Consumer sentiment bounced higher in early April but remains consistent with prior recessions. Expectations jumped on a decline in gas prices, but economic risks remain elevated. The outlook is highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Real Retail Sales Are Trending Flat
“Retail sales rose in March but fell after adjusting for price changes. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a new Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near Record Lows
“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
AIER’s Everyday Price Index Surges 3.0 Percent in March
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index surged in March as upward price pressures continue. Global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle are boosting uncertainty for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Services-Sector Shows Improvement in March
“Services-sector expansion broadened in March as labor shortages eased slightly but materials shortages and price pressures continue. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a new source of price pressure and disruption to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Auto Industry Struggles Continued in March
“Light-vehicle sales fell again in March. Assemblies remain weak as component shortages continue to restrain production, but inventory and prices show signs of stabilization recently, though at extreme levels. Global supply chains remain disrupted with the Russian invasion of Ukraine adding to global turmoil.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Manufacturing-Sector Survey Suggests Slower Expansion but Increased Price Pressures in March
“Manufacturing-sector demand expanded at a slower pace in March and price pressures intensified. Ongoing labor and logistical issues continue to restrain output and recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Private Payrolls Add 426,000 Jobs in March
“Payroll gains remained strong in March, providing support for growth. However, sustained price pressures, a new Fed tightening cycle, and turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine are significant risks for the economy.” ~ Robert Hughes