Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Weak Growth for Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers
“Personal income rose in February but real income excluding transfers fell, suggesting a threat to real spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near the Lowest Level Since 1969
“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Remain Elevated
“Job openings and quits remained near record levels in February. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a newly initiated Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are raising the risks for the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Confidence Improved Slightly as Expectations Plunged in March
“Consumer expectations weakened again in March, but improved present views offset the decline, lifting overall consumer confidence. Elevated price pressures, Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Fell in March, Remains at Recessionary Level
“Consumer sentiment fell again in March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Durable-goods Orders Fell in February on Broad-based Declines, But Remain High
“New orders for core capital goods fell in February though the level remains high. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level Since 1969
“Weekly initial claims fell to a multidecade low, indicating the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle increase uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
New Single-Family Home Sales Fell in February as Prices Show Signs of Plateauing
“New-home sales fell again in February and prices may be plateauing, though at a high level. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates may further weaken demand, and combined with significant inventory, continue to weigh on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Existing Home Sales Fell in February but Supply Remains Extremely Tight
“Existing-home sales fell in February, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences, elevated prices, and rising mortgage rates are likely to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Manufacturing Output is Solidly Above Pre-pandemic Levels
“Industrial output rose in February, led by solid gains outside of energy and motor vehicles. However, labor and logistics issues continue while turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine represents a new wave of potential disruptions.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weak Growth for Real Personal Income Excluding Transfers
“Personal income rose in February but real income excluding transfers fell, suggesting a threat to real spending. The outlook for the economy has become highly uncertain.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims Tick Up but Remain Near the Lowest Level Since 1969
“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain near a multidecade low, indicating a very tight labor market. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, sustained elevated price increases, and a new Fed tightening cycle have boosted risks to the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Private-Sector Job Openings and Quits Remain Elevated
“Job openings and quits remained near record levels in February. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, a newly initiated Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are raising the risks for the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Consumer Confidence Improved Slightly as Expectations Plunged in March
“Consumer expectations weakened again in March, but improved present views offset the decline, lifting overall consumer confidence. Elevated price pressures, Russian aggression in Ukraine, and a Fed tightening cycle increase risks for the economic outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Consumer Sentiment Fell in March, Remains at Recessionary Level
“Consumer sentiment fell again in March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Durable-goods Orders Fell in February on Broad-based Declines, But Remain High
“New orders for core capital goods fell in February though the level remains high. Continued strength for business investment is a positive sign for the economic outlook but risks remain elevated.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level Since 1969
“Weekly initial claims fell to a multidecade low, indicating the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a new Fed tightening cycle increase uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
New Single-Family Home Sales Fell in February as Prices Show Signs of Plateauing
“New-home sales fell again in February and prices may be plateauing, though at a high level. Elevated prices and rising mortgage rates may further weaken demand, and combined with significant inventory, continue to weigh on prices.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Existing Home Sales Fell in February but Supply Remains Extremely Tight
“Existing-home sales fell in February, but supply remains very tight. Shifting housing preferences, elevated prices, and rising mortgage rates are likely to impact demand over the coming months and quarters.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Manufacturing Output is Solidly Above Pre-pandemic Levels
“Industrial output rose in February, led by solid gains outside of energy and motor vehicles. However, labor and logistics issues continue while turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine represents a new wave of potential disruptions.” ~ Robert Hughes