Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level of the Year
“Weekly initial claims ticked down for a second week. Overall, claims remain at a very low level and the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
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February Unit Auto Sales Slowed as Assemblies, Inventories, and Prices Stabilize in January
“Light-vehicle sales slowed in February as component shortages continue to restrain production. Assemblies, inventory, and prices continued to show signs of stabilization through January, albeit at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Manufacturing-Sector Survey Showed Strong Results in February
“Manufacturing-sector demand remained strong in February. Production increased despite ongoing labor and logistical issues but constraints on faster production growth continue. Recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Confidence Weakened Slightly in February
“Consumer expectations weakened again in February, pulling down overall consumer confidence. Continued expansion remains the likely course, but weaker consumer attitudes could become a headwind.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Housing Permits Remained Hot in January but Mortgage Rates Also Continued to Rise
“Housing permits were solid again in January. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise Slightly
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up and are slightly above the pre-pandemic level. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Harsh Weather Drives a Surge in Utility Output While Manufacturing Posts a Modest Gain
“Industrial output jumped in January, led by a weather-related surge in utility output. Modest gains across many other areas puts about 95 percent of industrial producers at or above pre-pandemic levels. While declining Omicron cases should reduce constraints on output, overall labor shortages remain a significant obstacle.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Retail Spending Rebounded in January
“Retail sales rebounded in January and remain at a high level. However, some of the strong gains are likely due to price increases, making real gains less robust.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Fell Sharply in Early February
“Consumer sentiment fell again in early February and is now below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level of the Year
“Weekly initial claims ticked down for a second week. Overall, claims remain at a very low level and the labor market remains very tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
February Unit Auto Sales Slowed as Assemblies, Inventories, and Prices Stabilize in January
“Light-vehicle sales slowed in February as component shortages continue to restrain production. Assemblies, inventory, and prices continued to show signs of stabilization through January, albeit at extreme levels.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Manufacturing-Sector Survey Showed Strong Results in February
“Manufacturing-sector demand remained strong in February. Production increased despite ongoing labor and logistical issues but constraints on faster production growth continue. Recent events in Ukraine may be yet another source of disruption and further delay the return to normalcy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Consumer Confidence Weakened Slightly in February
“Consumer expectations weakened again in February, pulling down overall consumer confidence. Continued expansion remains the likely course, but weaker consumer attitudes could become a headwind.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Housing Permits Remained Hot in January but Mortgage Rates Also Continued to Rise
“Housing permits were solid again in January. However, rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may be headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rise Slightly
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits ticked up and are slightly above the pre-pandemic level. Overall, claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison. Most data suggest the labor market remains very tight.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Harsh Weather Drives a Surge in Utility Output While Manufacturing Posts a Modest Gain
“Industrial output jumped in January, led by a weather-related surge in utility output. Modest gains across many other areas puts about 95 percent of industrial producers at or above pre-pandemic levels. While declining Omicron cases should reduce constraints on output, overall labor shortages remain a significant obstacle.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Retail Spending Rebounded in January
“Retail sales rebounded in January and remain at a high level. However, some of the strong gains are likely due to price increases, making real gains less robust.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Consumer Sentiment Fell Sharply in Early February
“Consumer sentiment fell again in early February and is now below the lows seen in four of the last six recessions. Consumers are concerned about rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Groceries and Utilities Push AIER’s Everyday Price Index Up in January
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in January, driven by increases in the prices for groceries and household utilities. Constraints on production are likely to ease somewhat as new Covid cases decline. However, labor shortages may sustain upward pressure on prices for some time.” ~ Robert Hughes