Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Housing Permits Remained at a High Level in February but Builder Sentiment Fell in March
“Housing permits were off in February but remain at a solid level. Rising home prices and higher mortgage rates are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fell Slightly, Remain Very Low
“Weekly initial claims fell slightly and remain at a very low level, suggesting the labor market remains tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Rising Prices Boost Retail Sales in February
“Retail sales rose in February but fell after adjusting for prices. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and an impending Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Household Net Worth Hits a Record While Corporate Balance Sheets Improve
“Rising equity market values and surging home prices lifted aggregate household net worth to a new record in the final quarter of 2021 but is likely to suffer a setback in the first quarter of 2022 as equity prices plunge due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” – Robert Hughes
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Consumer Sentiment Fell Again in Early March
“Consumer sentiment fell again in early March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about fallout from the war in Ukraine, rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Hover Around Pre-Pandemic Levels
“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain at a very low level, suggesting the labor market remains tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Gas and Groceries Drive AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sharply Higher in February
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in February, driven by increases in the prices for motor fuel and groceries. Price pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term given the global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private-Sector Job Openings Fell Slightly in January but Remain Near the Record High
“Job openings and quits fell but both remained near record levels in January. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, an impending Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil are threatening the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Private Payrolls Post Another Strong Gain, Adding 654,000 Jobs in February
“Payrolls growth was strong again in February. While these results support a positive outlook for growth, geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred a new wave of risks and potential disruptions to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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Services-Sector Growth Slowed by Labor, Materials, and Logistical Constraints
“Services-sector expansion likely slowed in February as shortages of labor and materials continue. Fewer new cases of Covid may provide some relief but turmoil as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to disrupt the global economy and businesses.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Housing Permits Remained at a High Level in February but Builder Sentiment Fell in March
“Housing permits were off in February but remain at a solid level. Rising home prices and higher mortgage rates are strengthening headwinds for demand while elevated commodity costs remain a challenge for homebuilder profits.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fell Slightly, Remain Very Low
“Weekly initial claims fell slightly and remain at a very low level, suggesting the labor market remains tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Rising Prices Boost Retail Sales in February
“Retail sales rose in February but fell after adjusting for prices. Ongoing labor and materials shortages, turmoil from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and an impending Fed tightening cycle all raise risks for the outlook.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Household Net Worth Hits a Record While Corporate Balance Sheets Improve
“Rising equity market values and surging home prices lifted aggregate household net worth to a new record in the final quarter of 2021 but is likely to suffer a setback in the first quarter of 2022 as equity prices plunge due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Consumer Sentiment Fell Again in Early March
“Consumer sentiment fell again in early March and is consistent with prior recessions. Consumers are concerned about fallout from the war in Ukraine, rising prices, government policies, and long-term economic prospects.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Hover Around Pre-Pandemic Levels
“Weekly initial claims ticked up but remain at a very low level, suggesting the labor market remains tight. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine dramatically increases uncertainty.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Gas and Groceries Drive AIER’s Everyday Price Index Sharply Higher in February
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again in February, driven by increases in the prices for motor fuel and groceries. Price pressures are unlikely to ease in the short term given the global economic turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Private-Sector Job Openings Fell Slightly in January but Remain Near the Record High
“Job openings and quits fell but both remained near record levels in January. Labor difficulties, material shortages, and logistical issues as well as high inflation, an impending Fed tightening cycle, and global political and economic turmoil are threatening the U.S. economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
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•
Private Payrolls Post Another Strong Gain, Adding 654,000 Jobs in February
“Payrolls growth was strong again in February. While these results support a positive outlook for growth, geopolitical turmoil surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred a new wave of risks and potential disruptions to the global economy.” ~ Robert Hughes
-
•
Services-Sector Growth Slowed by Labor, Materials, and Logistical Constraints
“Services-sector expansion likely slowed in February as shortages of labor and materials continue. Fewer new cases of Covid may provide some relief but turmoil as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has the potential to disrupt the global economy and businesses.” ~ Robert Hughes