Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Consumer Sentiment Improved Slightly but Remained Low in Early September
“Consumer sentiment remained weak in early September as consumers react to the one-two punch of elevated numbers of new Covid cases and rising prices for many consumer goods. The survey results suggest economic conditions in the second half of 2021 could be disappointing.” – Robert Hughes
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Core Retail Sales Post a Strong Gain in August
“Retail sales rose in August with core retail sales particularly strong. Resilient consumer spending is a positive for the outlook but Covid is sustaining an elevated level of uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose but the Four-Week Average Fell
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week but the trend remains lower. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should support the downward trend, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to boost uncertainty for the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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Everyday Price Index Rises at a Slower Pace in August
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a slower gain in August but is still up 6.8 percent from a year ago. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic and government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level Since March 2020
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a new pandemic low. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to disrupt economic activity.” – Robert Hughes
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Job Openings Hit Another Record High in July
“Job openings hit another record high in July but the weaker-than-expected August jobs report and surging new Covid cases are clouding the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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Covid Resurgence Hurts Recovery in Employment
“Payrolls posted a disappointing gain in August as new Covid cases surge. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth have increased substantially.” – Robert Hughes
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Unit Auto Sales Fell Again in August as Shortages Drive Inventory Down and Prices Up
“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in August, falling farther below the recent typical range. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Appear to be Trending Lower Again
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic though continuing claims ticked up. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases remain a threat to the outlook.”…
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Labor, Materials, and Logistical Struggles Continue for the Manufacturing Sector
“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in August. However, labor, production, and logistical issues – many of which are worsening with the surge in new Covid cases – continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Consumer Sentiment Improved Slightly but Remained Low in Early September
“Consumer sentiment remained weak in early September as consumers react to the one-two punch of elevated numbers of new Covid cases and rising prices for many consumer goods. The survey results suggest economic conditions in the second half of 2021 could be disappointing.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Core Retail Sales Post a Strong Gain in August
“Retail sales rose in August with core retail sales particularly strong. Resilient consumer spending is a positive for the outlook but Covid is sustaining an elevated level of uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Rose but the Four-Week Average Fell
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week but the trend remains lower. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should support the downward trend, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to boost uncertainty for the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Everyday Price Index Rises at a Slower Pace in August
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index posted a slower gain in August but is still up 6.8 percent from a year ago. Prices of many goods and services continue to be distorted by the lingering effects of the pandemic and government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fall to the Lowest Level Since March 2020
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell to a new pandemic low. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but waves of new Covid cases will continue to disrupt economic activity.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Job Openings Hit Another Record High in July
“Job openings hit another record high in July but the weaker-than-expected August jobs report and surging new Covid cases are clouding the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Covid Resurgence Hurts Recovery in Employment
“Payrolls posted a disappointing gain in August as new Covid cases surge. The outlook is for continued recovery but the threats and headwinds to growth have increased substantially.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Unit Auto Sales Fell Again in August as Shortages Drive Inventory Down and Prices Up
“Light-vehicle sales fell for a fourth consecutive month in August, falling farther below the recent typical range. Component shortages continue to disrupt production causing inventories to plunge and prices to surge.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Appear to be Trending Lower Again
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for the fifth time in the last six weeks, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic though continuing claims ticked up. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases remain a threat to the outlook.”…
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•
Labor, Materials, and Logistical Struggles Continue for the Manufacturing Sector
“Demand for manufactured goods remained very strong in August. However, labor, production, and logistical issues – many of which are worsening with the surge in new Covid cases – continue to restrain supply and pressure prices.” – Robert Hughes