Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Covid Concerns and Rising Prices Drag Consumer Confidence Down in August
“Consumer attitudes are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The waning optimism could impact spending and adds to the growing list of risks to the economic outlook” – Robert Hughes
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New Single-Family Home Sales Rise but Signs of Moderation Are Emerging
“New-home sales rose in July while supply conditions eased a bit further. Rising prices, somewhat higher mortgage rates, and resurgent Covid cases are likely to sustain continued crosswinds and increased uncertainty for the housing market.” – Robert Hughes
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Existing Single-Family Home Sales Rose in July but Condo Sales Fell
“Existing-home sales and inventories rose slightly in July as high prices and shifting housing preferences weigh on the recent pace of activity.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fell but Outlook Remains Uncertain
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth consecutive week, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases are a threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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Struggles Continue for Single-Family Housing
“Single-family housing activity showed further signs of cooling in July. The combination of shifting housing preferences and rising single-family home prices appear to be dampening demand while labor difficulties and materials shortages restrain supply.” – Robert Hughes
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Manufacturing Output Posts a Solid Gain in July
“Industrial output rose in July as output jumped in the volatile motor vehicle industry. Ongoing difficulties with labor, logistics, and materials shortages should ease in the coming months and quarters, but the recent surge in new Covid cases does represent a risk to the outlook for industrial output.” – Robert Hughes
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Total and Core Retail Sales Fell in July
“Retail sales fell in July and the trend over the last three months is noticeably weaker. Continued recovery in the labor market and gains in wages are needed to support retail sales growth.” – Robert Hughes
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Fears of Delta Variant Send Consumer Sentiment Plunging in Early August
“Consumer sentiment plunged in early August as consumers react to the spread of the Delta variant and rise in new Covid cases. The survey results add to the list of risks challenging the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Continue to Hover Just Under 400,000
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again in the latest week but remain range-bound. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower but rising Covid cases are increasing uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes
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Everyday Price Index Outpaces the CPI in July
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again, led by food and energy. Prices for many goods and services are still distorted by the lingering effects of government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Covid Concerns and Rising Prices Drag Consumer Confidence Down in August
“Consumer attitudes are becoming less optimistic as Covid cases rise. The waning optimism could impact spending and adds to the growing list of risks to the economic outlook” – Robert Hughes
-
•
New Single-Family Home Sales Rise but Signs of Moderation Are Emerging
“New-home sales rose in July while supply conditions eased a bit further. Rising prices, somewhat higher mortgage rates, and resurgent Covid cases are likely to sustain continued crosswinds and increased uncertainty for the housing market.” – Robert Hughes
-
•
Existing Single-Family Home Sales Rose in July but Condo Sales Fell
“Existing-home sales and inventories rose slightly in July as high prices and shifting housing preferences weigh on the recent pace of activity.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Fell but Outlook Remains Uncertain
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell for a fourth consecutive week, hitting the lowest level of the pandemic. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower, but rising Covid cases are a threat to the outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Struggles Continue for Single-Family Housing
“Single-family housing activity showed further signs of cooling in July. The combination of shifting housing preferences and rising single-family home prices appear to be dampening demand while labor difficulties and materials shortages restrain supply.” – Robert Hughes
-
•
Manufacturing Output Posts a Solid Gain in July
“Industrial output rose in July as output jumped in the volatile motor vehicle industry. Ongoing difficulties with labor, logistics, and materials shortages should ease in the coming months and quarters, but the recent surge in new Covid cases does represent a risk to the outlook for industrial output.” – Robert Hughes
-
•
Total and Core Retail Sales Fell in July
“Retail sales fell in July and the trend over the last three months is noticeably weaker. Continued recovery in the labor market and gains in wages are needed to support retail sales growth.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Fears of Delta Variant Send Consumer Sentiment Plunging in Early August
“Consumer sentiment plunged in early August as consumers react to the spread of the Delta variant and rise in new Covid cases. The survey results add to the list of risks challenging the economic outlook.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Benefits Continue to Hover Just Under 400,000
“Weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits fell again in the latest week but remain range-bound. A tight labor market and a record number of open jobs should help drive initial claims lower but rising Covid cases are increasing uncertainty.” – Robert Hughes
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•
Everyday Price Index Outpaces the CPI in July
“AIER’s Everyday Price Index rose again, led by food and energy. Prices for many goods and services are still distorted by the lingering effects of government shutdowns. As these distortions fade, price pressures are likely to ease.” – Robert Hughes