Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Multifamily Construction Leads the Housing Market
Single-family housing activity continues to weaken with little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future, but multifamily housing activity remains robust.
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Retail Sales and Industrial Production Rise in May; Consumer Sentiment Falls in Early June
Gains in retail sales and industrial production in May are a positive for the economy, but trade wars are impacting consumer attitudes and represent a threat to the economic outlook.
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Small-Business Confidence Remains Strong Amid a Tight Labor Market
Small-business confidence rose in May while job openings remain at historically high levels in April. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic trade policy.
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Soft Jobs Report Suggests Caution, Not Panic
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 75,000 jobs in May, pulling the four-month average down to 124,000. Employment is a coincident indicator and no one knows what will happen over the next year, but the weakness over the last four months suggests caution, not panic.
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Tariffs and Labor Remain Major Issues According to Purchasing Managers
Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest continued economic expansion with elevated levels of concern over rising tariffs and shortages of labor.
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Auto Sales Rebound in May While Factory Orders Fell in April
Auto sales rose in May, and weekly data suggest consumer spending is solid. However, factory orders were weak in April. Currently, there is little hard data to suggest a recession is imminent. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
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Consumer Attitudes Remain Buoyant
Consumer attitudes were generally upbeat in May, supported by a strong labor market, but escalating trade wars and higher tariffs are having a significant negative impact.
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•
Initial Claims Remain Very Low; Minor Revisions to First-Quarter GDP
Initial claims remain very low in May, but revised data still show a poor performance for private domestic demand in the first quarter. Though economic data are still somewhat mixed, some recent positive signs are emerging.
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Durable-Goods Orders Appear to be Plateauing
New orders for durable goods and core capital-goods decreased in April and appear to be plateauing but broader measures of business fixed investment continue to trend higher.
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•
Housing Outlook Remains Weak While Labor Market Stays Strong
New-home sales fell in April, and home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth, but the strong labor market continues to provide a solid foundation for continued expansion.
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•
Multifamily Construction Leads the Housing Market
Single-family housing activity continues to weaken with little evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future, but multifamily housing activity remains robust.
-
•
Retail Sales and Industrial Production Rise in May; Consumer Sentiment Falls in Early June
Gains in retail sales and industrial production in May are a positive for the economy, but trade wars are impacting consumer attitudes and represent a threat to the economic outlook.
-
•
Small-Business Confidence Remains Strong Amid a Tight Labor Market
Small-business confidence rose in May while job openings remain at historically high levels in April. Both are positive signs for the economy despite the high level of uncertainty caused by erratic trade policy.
-
•
Soft Jobs Report Suggests Caution, Not Panic
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 75,000 jobs in May, pulling the four-month average down to 124,000. Employment is a coincident indicator and no one knows what will happen over the next year, but the weakness over the last four months suggests caution, not panic.
-
•
Tariffs and Labor Remain Major Issues According to Purchasing Managers
Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest continued economic expansion with elevated levels of concern over rising tariffs and shortages of labor.
-
•
Auto Sales Rebound in May While Factory Orders Fell in April
Auto sales rose in May, and weekly data suggest consumer spending is solid. However, factory orders were weak in April. Currently, there is little hard data to suggest a recession is imminent. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
-
•
Consumer Attitudes Remain Buoyant
Consumer attitudes were generally upbeat in May, supported by a strong labor market, but escalating trade wars and higher tariffs are having a significant negative impact.
-
•
Initial Claims Remain Very Low; Minor Revisions to First-Quarter GDP
Initial claims remain very low in May, but revised data still show a poor performance for private domestic demand in the first quarter. Though economic data are still somewhat mixed, some recent positive signs are emerging.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Appear to be Plateauing
New orders for durable goods and core capital-goods decreased in April and appear to be plateauing but broader measures of business fixed investment continue to trend higher.
-
•
Housing Outlook Remains Weak While Labor Market Stays Strong
New-home sales fell in April, and home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth, but the strong labor market continues to provide a solid foundation for continued expansion.