Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Single-Family Housing Activity Shows Some Life
Home sales have rebound in recent months. However, there is little evidence to support an expectation for a significant acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.
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Retail Sales Growth Rebounds in March While Initial Claims Hold Near Record Low
Retail-sales and initial-claims data show the economy may be gaining some momentum after a patch of weakness. However, continued uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and ongoing risks in the global economy remain significant concerns.
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Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early April but Remains at a High Level
Consumer sentiment fell slightly in early April but remains at broadly favorable levels. Caution regarding the outlook is still warranted but the trends for the most recent data appear marginally more favorable.
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Initial Claims Drop to the Lowest Level Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since 1969, providing compelling evidence that the recent period of weakness may be passing.
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Private Sector Job Gains Returned to Trend, Supporting a Cautiously Positive Outlook
Amid several months of mixed results in economic data, rebounding job creation in March helps tip the scales in favor of cautious optimism for continued economic expansion.
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Services Sector Expands at a Moderate Pace in March
Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in March. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to uneven growth, but they do not suggest a recession is imminent.
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Manufacturing-Sector Growth Continued in March
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index paints a modestly positive picture of the manufacturing sector in March, offsetting the weak report on February retail sales. The outlook is for ongoing economic expansion, but heightened caution is warranted.
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Drop in February Retail Sales Suggests Weak First Quarter
Retail sales fell again in February, the second decline in the last three months. A string of mixed economic reports suggests caution is warranted.
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Consumer Sentiment and New-Home Sales Post Gains
Consumer sentiment and new-home sales are showing gains, but the broad economic picture remains mixed. Continued expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
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•
Slowing Growth Raises Questions
Real gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, with real private domestic demand rising 2.6 percent. High levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policy and global economic conditions combined with mixed economic data raise doubts about the current expansion.
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•
Single-Family Housing Activity Shows Some Life
Home sales have rebound in recent months. However, there is little evidence to support an expectation for a significant acceleration in housing activity in the coming months and quarters.
-
•
Retail Sales Growth Rebounds in March While Initial Claims Hold Near Record Low
Retail-sales and initial-claims data show the economy may be gaining some momentum after a patch of weakness. However, continued uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and ongoing risks in the global economy remain significant concerns.
-
•
Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early April but Remains at a High Level
Consumer sentiment fell slightly in early April but remains at broadly favorable levels. Caution regarding the outlook is still warranted but the trends for the most recent data appear marginally more favorable.
-
•
Initial Claims Drop to the Lowest Level Since 1969
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to the lowest level since 1969, providing compelling evidence that the recent period of weakness may be passing.
-
•
Private Sector Job Gains Returned to Trend, Supporting a Cautiously Positive Outlook
Amid several months of mixed results in economic data, rebounding job creation in March helps tip the scales in favor of cautious optimism for continued economic expansion.
-
•
Services Sector Expands at a Moderate Pace in March
Nonmanufacturing activity expanded at a slower pace in March. The results are consistent with a range of economic data that point to uneven growth, but they do not suggest a recession is imminent.
-
•
Manufacturing-Sector Growth Continued in March
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index paints a modestly positive picture of the manufacturing sector in March, offsetting the weak report on February retail sales. The outlook is for ongoing economic expansion, but heightened caution is warranted.
-
•
Drop in February Retail Sales Suggests Weak First Quarter
Retail sales fell again in February, the second decline in the last three months. A string of mixed economic reports suggests caution is warranted.
-
•
Consumer Sentiment and New-Home Sales Post Gains
Consumer sentiment and new-home sales are showing gains, but the broad economic picture remains mixed. Continued expansion remains the most likely path, but caution is warranted.
-
•
Slowing Growth Raises Questions
Real gross domestic product grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, with real private domestic demand rising 2.6 percent. High levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policy and global economic conditions combined with mixed economic data raise doubts about the current expansion.