Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Consumer Confidence Rose in February, But Home Construction Fell in December
Consumer confidence rebounded in February following three consecutive declines, and suggests consumers are feeling better after a period of heightened market volatility and the government shutdown. However, housing activity continued to weaken in December, restrained by rising home prices.
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Durable-Goods Orders Rose in December on Strength in Consumer Durables
Durable-goods orders rose in December, but core capital-goods orders fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.
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Manufacturing Output Retreated in January as Vehicle Production Plunged
Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in January as vehicle assemblies fell 13.7 percent. The weak report continues a string of disappointing economic data and justifies a cautious outlook. However, economic expansion remains the most likely path.
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Broad Weakness in Retail Sales in December
Retail sales fell sharply in December, the third decline in the last five months. Broadening weakness in the economy suggests caution is warranted.
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The U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in November
The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November reflecting a smaller deficit in goods and a smaller surplus in services. Uncertainty over trade policy could restrain hiring and capital investment for some industries and threaten the broader economic outlook.
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Purchasing Managers Suggest Solid Growth but Lingering Concerns in January
Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest still-solid levels of current activity with elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the future.
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New Single-Family Home Sales Bounce Back in November
Sales of new single-family homes jumped 16.9 percent in November negating recent weakness, but is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.
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Existing Single-Family Home Sales Fall Again in December
Existing-home sales declined in December and are 12.8 percent below the November 2017 peak. Home prices, interest rates, and uncertainty are all contributing to the weakness.
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Manufacturing Output Surged, Boosting Utilization to a 4-Year High
Manufacturing output surged 1.1 percent for the latest month, pushing the 12-month gain to 3.2 percent and continuing a mild accelerating trend in place since 2016.
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Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly
Small-business confidence and job openings fell slightly in the latest reports but both remain at high levels, providing some positive support for the economic outlook.
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•
Consumer Confidence Rose in February, But Home Construction Fell in December
Consumer confidence rebounded in February following three consecutive declines, and suggests consumers are feeling better after a period of heightened market volatility and the government shutdown. However, housing activity continued to weaken in December, restrained by rising home prices.
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•
Durable-Goods Orders Rose in December on Strength in Consumer Durables
Durable-goods orders rose in December, but core capital-goods orders fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Continued economic expansion remains the most likely path but caution is warranted.
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•
Manufacturing Output Retreated in January as Vehicle Production Plunged
Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in January as vehicle assemblies fell 13.7 percent. The weak report continues a string of disappointing economic data and justifies a cautious outlook. However, economic expansion remains the most likely path.
-
•
Broad Weakness in Retail Sales in December
Retail sales fell sharply in December, the third decline in the last five months. Broadening weakness in the economy suggests caution is warranted.
-
•
The U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in November
The U.S. trade deficit decreased slightly in November reflecting a smaller deficit in goods and a smaller surplus in services. Uncertainty over trade policy could restrain hiring and capital investment for some industries and threaten the broader economic outlook.
-
•
Purchasing Managers Suggest Solid Growth but Lingering Concerns in January
Reports from the Institute for Supply Management suggest still-solid levels of current activity with elevated levels of uncertainty regarding the future.
-
•
New Single-Family Home Sales Bounce Back in November
Sales of new single-family homes jumped 16.9 percent in November negating recent weakness, but is unlikely to be the start of a new sustained surge in housing activity.
-
•
Existing Single-Family Home Sales Fall Again in December
Existing-home sales declined in December and are 12.8 percent below the November 2017 peak. Home prices, interest rates, and uncertainty are all contributing to the weakness.
-
•
Manufacturing Output Surged, Boosting Utilization to a 4-Year High
Manufacturing output surged 1.1 percent for the latest month, pushing the 12-month gain to 3.2 percent and continuing a mild accelerating trend in place since 2016.
-
•
Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings Decline Slightly
Small-business confidence and job openings fell slightly in the latest reports but both remain at high levels, providing some positive support for the economic outlook.