Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Consumer Confidence and Home Construction Drop
Consumer confidence fell in March but remains at a level consistent with economic expansion. Housing activity continues to weaken with no evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future.
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Posts Another Weak Month
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index posted its third negative result in a row, but the index remains above levels historically associated with either recession or significant price increases.
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Philadelphia-Area Manufacturing Survey Remains Positive
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey was generally favorable in March with respondents were more upbeat about current conditions but somewhat less optimistic about the future.
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Consumer Sentiment and Job Openings Show Improvement
Consumer sentiment improved in early March, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. The tight labor market remains one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.
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Single-Family Home Sales Fell in January
New single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent in January. Slowing sales and rising inventory are weighing on new construction, suggesting new-home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.
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Retail Sales Growth Picked Up in January After a Sharp Fall in December
Retail sales growth bounced back in January, but economic data continue to be mixed, suggesting a heightened degree of caution for the economic outlook.
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February Jobs Report Raises Questions
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, the smallest monthly gain since September 2017. Combined with other recent disappointing economic data, the report raises concerns about the durability of the economic expansion.
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The Nonmanufacturing Sector Gained Momentum in February on Strength in Activity and New Orders
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February. The increase was led by strong performances by the activity index and the new orders index. The report suggests continued expansion for the economy last month.
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New Data Suggest Continued Expansion in the Manufacturing Sector in February
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management registered a 54.2 percent reading in February. Despite a small decline, the index remains above neutral—a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
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Real GDP Growth Decelerated in the Fourth Quarter, but Domestic Demand Remains Robust
Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, putting the calendar year growth at 2.9 percent, the fastest pace since 2015. Consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in the quarter, putting the calendar year increase at 2.0 percent, the fastest since 2011, and the seventh year in a row…
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•
Consumer Confidence and Home Construction Drop
Consumer confidence fell in March but remains at a level consistent with economic expansion. Housing activity continues to weaken with no evidence to suggest significant gains in the near future.
-
•
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Posts Another Weak Month
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index posted its third negative result in a row, but the index remains above levels historically associated with either recession or significant price increases.
-
•
Philadelphia-Area Manufacturing Survey Remains Positive
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing survey was generally favorable in March with respondents were more upbeat about current conditions but somewhat less optimistic about the future.
-
•
Consumer Sentiment and Job Openings Show Improvement
Consumer sentiment improved in early March, maintaining a generally high level by historical comparison. The tight labor market remains one of the key supports for consumer sentiment.
-
•
Single-Family Home Sales Fell in January
New single-family home sales fell 6.9 percent in January. Slowing sales and rising inventory are weighing on new construction, suggesting new-home construction is unlikely to contribute significantly to economic growth in coming quarters.
-
•
Retail Sales Growth Picked Up in January After a Sharp Fall in December
Retail sales growth bounced back in January, but economic data continue to be mixed, suggesting a heightened degree of caution for the economic outlook.
-
•
February Jobs Report Raises Questions
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added just 20,000 jobs in February, the smallest monthly gain since September 2017. Combined with other recent disappointing economic data, the report raises concerns about the durability of the economic expansion.
-
•
The Nonmanufacturing Sector Gained Momentum in February on Strength in Activity and New Orders
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to 59.7 in February. The increase was led by strong performances by the activity index and the new orders index. The report suggests continued expansion for the economy last month.
-
•
New Data Suggest Continued Expansion in the Manufacturing Sector in February
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index from the Institute for Supply Management registered a 54.2 percent reading in February. Despite a small decline, the index remains above neutral—a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
-
•
Real GDP Growth Decelerated in the Fourth Quarter, but Domestic Demand Remains Robust
Real gross domestic product rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, putting the calendar year growth at 2.9 percent, the fastest pace since 2015. Consumer prices rose 1.5 percent in the quarter, putting the calendar year increase at 2.0 percent, the fastest since 2011, and the seventh year in a row…