Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Retail Sales Growth Rebounded in October While Initial Claims Ticked Up
Retail sales and initial claims data show the economy remains generally healthy. However, uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and broadening global economic risks have the potential to negatively impact the economic expansion.
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Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early November but Remains at a High Level
Consumer sentiment indicators remain at broadly favorable levels but rising interest rates and accelerating price increases are starting to have an impact.
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Initial Claims Hold Near Record Lows While Consumer Credit Growth Slows
Initial claims remain near a record low as a percentage of the labor force while consumer credit growth slowed in September. Both are positive signs for the economy.
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Job Openings and Quits Remain Near Record Highs
Open jobs in the U.S. were down slightly in September to 7.009 million, just below the record-high 7.293 million in August. Private job openings totaled 6.407 million in September. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.
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Private Payrolls Jumped in October and Wage Growth Accelerated
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 250,000 jobs in October and hourly earnings growth accelerated to a 3.1 percent rate, the highest since April 2009. Both are positive signs for the labor market and the economy overall.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI Fell in October but Suggests Continued Expansion
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 57.7 percent reading in October. Despite a small decline, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
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Consumer Confidence Moved Closer to a New Record High
Consumer Confidence rose for the fourth month in a row to 137.9, the highest level since September 2000 and just 6.8 points below the all-time record.
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Consumers Drive Third-Quarter GDP Higher
Real gross domestic product rose at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, driven primarily by strong gains in consumer spending. A positive outlook is further support by the results of the AIER Leading Indicators index, which scored a healthy 88 in September.
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Durable-Goods Orders Increase in September While Core Capital Goods Decline Slightly
New orders for durable goods increased 0.8 percent in September while new orders for core capital goods fell 0.1 percent. Today’s data are generally positive, but core capital-goods orders have been essentially flat over the past two months.
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New-Home Sales Fall Again
Sales of new single-family homes fell 5.5 percent in September, the fourth decline in a row, while inventory rose for the sixth straight month putting the months’ supply at the highest since 2011. Rising home prices and higher interest rates are likely to weigh on housing activity over coming months and quarters.
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•
Retail Sales Growth Rebounded in October While Initial Claims Ticked Up
Retail sales and initial claims data show the economy remains generally healthy. However, uncertainty around U.S. economic policies and broadening global economic risks have the potential to negatively impact the economic expansion.
-
•
Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early November but Remains at a High Level
Consumer sentiment indicators remain at broadly favorable levels but rising interest rates and accelerating price increases are starting to have an impact.
-
•
Initial Claims Hold Near Record Lows While Consumer Credit Growth Slows
Initial claims remain near a record low as a percentage of the labor force while consumer credit growth slowed in September. Both are positive signs for the economy.
-
•
Job Openings and Quits Remain Near Record Highs
Open jobs in the U.S. were down slightly in September to 7.009 million, just below the record-high 7.293 million in August. Private job openings totaled 6.407 million in September. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.
-
•
Private Payrolls Jumped in October and Wage Growth Accelerated
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 250,000 jobs in October and hourly earnings growth accelerated to a 3.1 percent rate, the highest since April 2009. Both are positive signs for the labor market and the economy overall.
-
•
ISM Manufacturing PMI Fell in October but Suggests Continued Expansion
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 57.7 percent reading in October. Despite a small decline, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
-
•
Consumer Confidence Moved Closer to a New Record High
Consumer Confidence rose for the fourth month in a row to 137.9, the highest level since September 2000 and just 6.8 points below the all-time record.
-
•
Consumers Drive Third-Quarter GDP Higher
Real gross domestic product rose at a 3.5 percent annualized rate in the third quarter, driven primarily by strong gains in consumer spending. A positive outlook is further support by the results of the AIER Leading Indicators index, which scored a healthy 88 in September.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Increase in September While Core Capital Goods Decline Slightly
New orders for durable goods increased 0.8 percent in September while new orders for core capital goods fell 0.1 percent. Today’s data are generally positive, but core capital-goods orders have been essentially flat over the past two months.
-
•
New-Home Sales Fall Again
Sales of new single-family homes fell 5.5 percent in September, the fourth decline in a row, while inventory rose for the sixth straight month putting the months’ supply at the highest since 2011. Rising home prices and higher interest rates are likely to weigh on housing activity over coming months and quarters.