Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Trio of Reports Sends Mixed, but Mostly Positive, Signals
Consumer Sentiment jumped in early September while retail sales and industrial production both posted modest gains though with mixed results among the details. Overall, the three reports suggest solid growth trends, supporting a positive outlook.
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New Record Highs for Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings
The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. Job openings also reached a new all-time high. Combined, these reports indicate on-going economic strength and support a positive outlook over the coming months and quarters.
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Average Hourly Earnings Growth Accelerates to a Cycle High in August
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August bringing 12-month total to 2.33 million new jobs while hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a 12-month gain of 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2009. Broad-based gains in the labor market are providing support for consumer confidence, consumer spending, and the economy overall.
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Nonmanufacturing Index Rises in August; Initial Claims Lowest Since 1969
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to a reading of 58.5 from 55.7 in July. The results suggest the nonmanufacturing sector continued to grow in August. That performance is in line with the report for the manufacturing sector and other recent data that point to ongoing expansion for the overall economy.
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ISM Manufacturing PMI Reaches 14-Year High
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a 61.3 reading in August, the highest reading since 2004. All five components of the PMI showed stronger readings in the latest month. Today’s report suggests a positive outlook for manufacturing.
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Income and Spending Post Gains in July
Personal income rose 0.3 percent in July while total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent. Gains in disposable income should provide support for future increases in spending and suggest a positive outlook for the economy.
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Corporate Profits Hit a New Record as GDP Growth Is Revised Higher
Revised estimates show the U.S. economy grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter while after-tax profits rose 3.7 percent to a record $1,968.5 billion at an annual rate.
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Consumer Confidence Closing In on a New Record High
Consumer Confidence rose for the second month in a row, to the highest level since October 2000. Overall, consumer attitudes remain at historically favorable levels, suggesting support for future gains in consumer spending and overall economic growth.
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Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Surge to a Record
New orders for durable goods fell 0.2 percent in July, however, excluding aircraft, orders jumped 1.3 percent to a record high. The data suggest that demand remains strong and that the outlook for the economy remains positive.
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Prices and Interest Rates May Be Weighing on Housing
Sales of new single-family homes fell 1.7 percent in July. Slowing sales are coinciding with slowing construction suggesting new-home building is unlikely to contribute significantly to growth in coming quarters.
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•
Trio of Reports Sends Mixed, but Mostly Positive, Signals
Consumer Sentiment jumped in early September while retail sales and industrial production both posted modest gains though with mixed results among the details. Overall, the three reports suggest solid growth trends, supporting a positive outlook.
-
•
New Record Highs for Small-Business Confidence and Job Openings
The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business jumped to 108.8 in August, a new all-time high. Job openings also reached a new all-time high. Combined, these reports indicate on-going economic strength and support a positive outlook over the coming months and quarters.
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•
Average Hourly Earnings Growth Accelerates to a Cycle High in August
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 201,000 jobs in August bringing 12-month total to 2.33 million new jobs while hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent for a 12-month gain of 2.9 percent, the fastest since 2009. Broad-based gains in the labor market are providing support for consumer confidence, consumer spending, and the economy overall.
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•
Nonmanufacturing Index Rises in August; Initial Claims Lowest Since 1969
The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index rose to a reading of 58.5 from 55.7 in July. The results suggest the nonmanufacturing sector continued to grow in August. That performance is in line with the report for the manufacturing sector and other recent data that point to ongoing expansion for the overall economy.
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•
ISM Manufacturing PMI Reaches 14-Year High
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index registered a 61.3 reading in August, the highest reading since 2004. All five components of the PMI showed stronger readings in the latest month. Today’s report suggests a positive outlook for manufacturing.
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•
Income and Spending Post Gains in July
Personal income rose 0.3 percent in July while total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.4 percent. Gains in disposable income should provide support for future increases in spending and suggest a positive outlook for the economy.
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•
Corporate Profits Hit a New Record as GDP Growth Is Revised Higher
Revised estimates show the U.S. economy grew at a 4.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter while after-tax profits rose 3.7 percent to a record $1,968.5 billion at an annual rate.
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•
Consumer Confidence Closing In on a New Record High
Consumer Confidence rose for the second month in a row, to the highest level since October 2000. Overall, consumer attitudes remain at historically favorable levels, suggesting support for future gains in consumer spending and overall economic growth.
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•
Durable-Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft Surge to a Record
New orders for durable goods fell 0.2 percent in July, however, excluding aircraft, orders jumped 1.3 percent to a record high. The data suggest that demand remains strong and that the outlook for the economy remains positive.
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•
Prices and Interest Rates May Be Weighing on Housing
Sales of new single-family homes fell 1.7 percent in July. Slowing sales are coinciding with slowing construction suggesting new-home building is unlikely to contribute significantly to growth in coming quarters.