Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Existing-Home Sales Fell Again in July
Sales of existing homes fell in July, the fourth consecutive decline. Declining affordability due to rising home prices and rising interest rates is likely to continue weighing on housing activity in coming quarters.
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Retail Sales Easily Beat Expectations in July
Retail sales for July rose 0.5 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. The report suggests that U.S. economic growth is maintaining strong momentum, supported by consumer spending.
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Small-Business Confidence Is Booming
The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business rose 0.7 points in July, coming in at 107.9, the second-highest in history, extending a run of 20 consecutive months above 100.
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High Rates for Job Openings and Quits Suggest a Very Tight Labor Market
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the number of open positions in the private sector was essentially unchanged in June, holding at a very high level. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.
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Despite a Weak Headline, the July Jobs Report Is Upbeat
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 157,000 jobs in July, below consensus expectations. However, job creation appears to have reaccelerated over the past ten months, supporting gains in hourly earnings. Overall, the report was upbeat.
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ISM Manufacturing Survey Pulls Back in July but Remains Strongly Positive
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 58.1 percent reading in July, down from 60.2 in June. Despite the pullback, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
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Compensation Costs Rose in the Second Quarter
Total compensation costs for all civilian workers rose 0.6 percent in the second quarter, less than the 0.8 percent rise in the first quarter. Compensation-costs increases have trended higher in recent years however, the rate of increase remains moderate by historical measures.
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Real GDP Growth Rebounds Sharply in the Second Quarter
Real gross domestic product rose at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter, while consumer-price increases decelerated in the second quarter. Overall, the very solid report suggests the U.S. economic expansion remains healthy.
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Capital-Spending Prospects Remain Strong
New orders for durable goods jumped 1.0 percent in June while new orders for core capital goods rose 0.6 percent. Both are showing strong uptrends over the past two years.
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Sales of New and Existing Homes Are Slowing as Supply Rises
Sales of new and existing single-family homes fell in June as inventories rose, boosting the supply of homes on the market, measured in months. Still, the economy overall remains very healthy.
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•
Existing-Home Sales Fell Again in July
Sales of existing homes fell in July, the fourth consecutive decline. Declining affordability due to rising home prices and rising interest rates is likely to continue weighing on housing activity in coming quarters.
-
•
Retail Sales Easily Beat Expectations in July
Retail sales for July rose 0.5 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of gains. The report suggests that U.S. economic growth is maintaining strong momentum, supported by consumer spending.
-
•
Small-Business Confidence Is Booming
The Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business rose 0.7 points in July, coming in at 107.9, the second-highest in history, extending a run of 20 consecutive months above 100.
-
•
High Rates for Job Openings and Quits Suggest a Very Tight Labor Market
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the number of open positions in the private sector was essentially unchanged in June, holding at a very high level. Overall, the data relating to the labor market continue to show strength.
-
•
Despite a Weak Headline, the July Jobs Report Is Upbeat
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 157,000 jobs in July, below consensus expectations. However, job creation appears to have reaccelerated over the past ten months, supporting gains in hourly earnings. Overall, the report was upbeat.
-
•
ISM Manufacturing Survey Pulls Back in July but Remains Strongly Positive
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index registered a 58.1 percent reading in July, down from 60.2 in June. Despite the pullback, the index remains well above neutral and is a positive sign for the manufacturing sector.
-
•
Compensation Costs Rose in the Second Quarter
Total compensation costs for all civilian workers rose 0.6 percent in the second quarter, less than the 0.8 percent rise in the first quarter. Compensation-costs increases have trended higher in recent years however, the rate of increase remains moderate by historical measures.
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•
Real GDP Growth Rebounds Sharply in the Second Quarter
Real gross domestic product rose at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, up from a revised 2.2 percent pace in the first quarter, while consumer-price increases decelerated in the second quarter. Overall, the very solid report suggests the U.S. economic expansion remains healthy.
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•
Capital-Spending Prospects Remain Strong
New orders for durable goods jumped 1.0 percent in June while new orders for core capital goods rose 0.6 percent. Both are showing strong uptrends over the past two years.
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•
Sales of New and Existing Homes Are Slowing as Supply Rises
Sales of new and existing single-family homes fell in June as inventories rose, boosting the supply of homes on the market, measured in months. Still, the economy overall remains very healthy.