Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
-
•
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Again, and Leading Indicators Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 207,000 for the latest week, the lowest reading since 1969, while the Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board posted a 0.5 percent increase in June. Overall, the preponderance of data support an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.
-
•
New Housing Starts and Permits Fall in June as Activity Plateaus
Housing construction fell in June as single-family and multifamily starts declined. Housing permits, an indicator of future activity, also fell in the latest month. Overall, housing construction and permits appear to be plateauing after rebounding from the housing boom-bust cycle in the early 2000s.
-
•
Gains in Industrial Production Support a Positive Outlook
Industrial production jumped 0.6 percent in June on broad-based gains. Along with other solid economic data and very strong readings from the AIER leading indicators index, the outlook for continued economic expansion remains favorable.
-
•
Small-Business Confidence Remains Very High, but Labor Concerns Continue
The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business shows small-business confidence remains very high, supported by favorable expectations for the economy and future sales. However, the lack of qualified candidates for open positions is a major concern.
-
•
Strong Jobs Report Supports a Favorable Outlook
Payrolls in the United States rose by 213,000 in June on widespread gains among industries. Combined with other strong economic data and the positive results from the AIER Index of Leading Indicators, today’s report suggests a positive outlook for the current expansion.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Tick Down in May but Remain in an Uptrend
New orders for durable goods fell 0.6 percent in May. However, orders have been on a solid rising trend over the past two years and recent declines do not appear to suggest that the rising trend is in danger.
-
•
Consumer Confidence Ticked Down in June but Remains at a Very High Level
Despite a slight dip in June, consumer confidence remains at historically favorable levels suggesting ongoing economic expansion in the short term. However, consumers’ expectations may be plateauing, possibly reflecting escalating trade tensions.
-
•
Existing-Home Sales Holding in a Flat Trend
Sales of existing homes fell 0.4 percent in May to a 5.43 million-unit annual rate versus a 5.45 million pace in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales have been in a flat trend recently, held back by limited inventory.
-
•
Rebounding Retail Sales Growth and Low Initial Claims Point to Robust Economy
Retail sales posted the third strong monthly gain in a row following weak performances in January and February. Combining these data with strong readings from the AIER Leading Indicators index, the outlook for the economy remains upbeat.
-
•
Jobs Growth Is Rebounding and Hourly Earnings Growth Is Accelerating
Payrolls in the United States rose by 223,000 in May, solidly beating an expected rise of 188,000. Gains in the labor market have accelerated recently, reducing fears of a pending slowdown, yet the increases remain modest by historical comparison, suggesting that the slower and somewhat steadier gains of the current cycle may help prolong the…
-
•
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Again, and Leading Indicators Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 207,000 for the latest week, the lowest reading since 1969, while the Leading Economic Index from The Conference Board posted a 0.5 percent increase in June. Overall, the preponderance of data support an upbeat outlook for the U.S. economy.
-
•
New Housing Starts and Permits Fall in June as Activity Plateaus
Housing construction fell in June as single-family and multifamily starts declined. Housing permits, an indicator of future activity, also fell in the latest month. Overall, housing construction and permits appear to be plateauing after rebounding from the housing boom-bust cycle in the early 2000s.
-
•
Gains in Industrial Production Support a Positive Outlook
Industrial production jumped 0.6 percent in June on broad-based gains. Along with other solid economic data and very strong readings from the AIER leading indicators index, the outlook for continued economic expansion remains favorable.
-
•
Small-Business Confidence Remains Very High, but Labor Concerns Continue
The latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business shows small-business confidence remains very high, supported by favorable expectations for the economy and future sales. However, the lack of qualified candidates for open positions is a major concern.
-
•
Strong Jobs Report Supports a Favorable Outlook
Payrolls in the United States rose by 213,000 in June on widespread gains among industries. Combined with other strong economic data and the positive results from the AIER Index of Leading Indicators, today’s report suggests a positive outlook for the current expansion.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Tick Down in May but Remain in an Uptrend
New orders for durable goods fell 0.6 percent in May. However, orders have been on a solid rising trend over the past two years and recent declines do not appear to suggest that the rising trend is in danger.
-
•
Consumer Confidence Ticked Down in June but Remains at a Very High Level
Despite a slight dip in June, consumer confidence remains at historically favorable levels suggesting ongoing economic expansion in the short term. However, consumers’ expectations may be plateauing, possibly reflecting escalating trade tensions.
-
•
Existing-Home Sales Holding in a Flat Trend
Sales of existing homes fell 0.4 percent in May to a 5.43 million-unit annual rate versus a 5.45 million pace in April, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales have been in a flat trend recently, held back by limited inventory.
-
•
Rebounding Retail Sales Growth and Low Initial Claims Point to Robust Economy
Retail sales posted the third strong monthly gain in a row following weak performances in January and February. Combining these data with strong readings from the AIER Leading Indicators index, the outlook for the economy remains upbeat.
-
•
Jobs Growth Is Rebounding and Hourly Earnings Growth Is Accelerating
Payrolls in the United States rose by 223,000 in May, solidly beating an expected rise of 188,000. Gains in the labor market have accelerated recently, reducing fears of a pending slowdown, yet the increases remain modest by historical comparison, suggesting that the slower and somewhat steadier gains of the current cycle may help prolong the…