Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Existing-Home Sales Are Plateauing, Restrained by Low Inventory
Existing-home sales rose 3.0 percent in February following a 3.2 percent drop in January. Sales have bounced around in a tight range for most of the past two years. One of the key reasons for the range-bound selling pace is the tight supply of existing homes for sale.
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March Starts Off With Strong Economic Data
The latest economic data show initial claims for unemployment insurance fell again while personal income posted a solid gain and manufacturing-sector activity remained strong. The overall message is that the U.S. economy appears to be growing at a very solid pace in the first quarter.
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Above-Trend Growth
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index pulled back in January, coming in at 0.12, down from 0.14 in December. Despite the weaker performance in January, the index remains above zero, suggesting economic growth remains above its long-term trend.
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Payroll Gains Are Slowly Boosting Wage Increases
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 200,000 jobs in January, the third monthly gain at or above 200,000 in the last four months, helping boost wage growth to 2.9 percent, the highest rate since 2009.
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Modest Headline Masks a Strong Quarter for U.S. Economy
The initial estimate for fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.6 percent. However, Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of private domestic demand, rose a robust 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, well above the 2.6 percent real-GDP headline.
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New- and Existing-Home Sales Are Showing Divergent Paths
Sales of new and existing single-family homes fell in December. However, a stronger postrecession recovery in existing-home sales has pushed the current months supply to an all-time low while the months supply for single-family homes has held relatively steady in recent months.
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early January
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment fell slightly to 94.4 in early January, down from 95.9 in December, but remains at a relatively high level.
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Empire State Manufacturing-Sector Expectations Remain Strong
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey results tilt to the favorable side but raise enough concerns to warrant close monitoring of data related to the New York regional economy and the manufacturing sector nationwide.
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Small-Business Optimism Index Posts Best Year on Record
The small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell slightly in December but still had a record-breaking year. However, there are significant concerns regarding the tight labor market and lack of qualified applicants to fill current openings.
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Despite a Disappointing Headline, the December Jobs Report Points to Positive Momentum for the Economy
Payrolls in the United States rose by a disappointing 148,000 in December, however, most of the information in the report was positive and provides additional evidence for a continuing economic expansion.
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•
Existing-Home Sales Are Plateauing, Restrained by Low Inventory
Existing-home sales rose 3.0 percent in February following a 3.2 percent drop in January. Sales have bounced around in a tight range for most of the past two years. One of the key reasons for the range-bound selling pace is the tight supply of existing homes for sale.
-
•
March Starts Off With Strong Economic Data
The latest economic data show initial claims for unemployment insurance fell again while personal income posted a solid gain and manufacturing-sector activity remained strong. The overall message is that the U.S. economy appears to be growing at a very solid pace in the first quarter.
-
•
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Above-Trend Growth
The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index pulled back in January, coming in at 0.12, down from 0.14 in December. Despite the weaker performance in January, the index remains above zero, suggesting economic growth remains above its long-term trend.
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•
Payroll Gains Are Slowly Boosting Wage Increases
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 200,000 jobs in January, the third monthly gain at or above 200,000 in the last four months, helping boost wage growth to 2.9 percent, the highest rate since 2009.
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•
Modest Headline Masks a Strong Quarter for U.S. Economy
The initial estimate for fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.6 percent. However, Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of private domestic demand, rose a robust 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, well above the 2.6 percent real-GDP headline.
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•
New- and Existing-Home Sales Are Showing Divergent Paths
Sales of new and existing single-family homes fell in December. However, a stronger postrecession recovery in existing-home sales has pushed the current months supply to an all-time low while the months supply for single-family homes has held relatively steady in recent months.
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•
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Fell Slightly in Early January
The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumer Sentiment fell slightly to 94.4 in early January, down from 95.9 in December, but remains at a relatively high level.
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•
Empire State Manufacturing-Sector Expectations Remain Strong
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey results tilt to the favorable side but raise enough concerns to warrant close monitoring of data related to the New York regional economy and the manufacturing sector nationwide.
-
•
Small-Business Optimism Index Posts Best Year on Record
The small-business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell slightly in December but still had a record-breaking year. However, there are significant concerns regarding the tight labor market and lack of qualified applicants to fill current openings.
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•
Despite a Disappointing Headline, the December Jobs Report Points to Positive Momentum for the Economy
Payrolls in the United States rose by a disappointing 148,000 in December, however, most of the information in the report was positive and provides additional evidence for a continuing economic expansion.