Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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ISM Manufacturing New-Orders Index Hits Highest Level Since 2004
The ISM new-orders index came in at 69.4, up from 64.0 in November, and the 7th month in a row above 60. The strong performance suggests that growth in manufacturing output is likely to accelerate in coming months.
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Chicago Business Barometer Rises to Highest Level Since 2011
The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 67.6 in December, the highest level since March 2011. The results of the latest survey suggest continued economic growth for the region.
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Consumer Confidence Falls in December as Short-Term Expectations Drop
The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 122.1 in the latest reading, but remains at historically favorable levels, supported by a robust labor market, suggesting support for ongoing economic expansion in the short term.
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Third-Quarter Real GDP Rises 3.2 Percent; Profits Hit a Record
Revised estimates show real GDP grew at a 3.2 percent pace in the third quarter while U.S. corporate profits rose to a new record high and core consumer price increases decelerated. Overall, today’s data suggest an economic environment with solid growth and slow price increases that is likely to continue well into 2018.
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A Decline in Multifamily Housing Permits Offsets a Gain in Single-Family Permits
Housing starts rose 3.3 percent in November on gains in both the multifamily segment and in the single-family segment. Overall, single-family housing construction continues to rise while the multifamily segment has plateaued.
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Strong Retail Sales Gains and Low Initial Claims Point to Robust Growth
Retail sales jumped 0.8 percent in November, the third strong monthly gain in a row. Along with initial claims, today’s data show the economy is gaining momentum, suggesting the outlook remains upbeat.
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The Latest Labor Market Indicators Ticked Down but Still Suggest Future Gains
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ticked down slightly in November and total job openings in the United States fell to 5.996 million in October from 6.177 million in September, however both still suggest labor-market strength.
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November Employment Report Provides More Support for Continued Economic Expansion
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 228,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, providing support for consumer spending and continued economic expansion.
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Labor Market Indicators Remain Strong Ahead of November Jobs Report
Recent indicators for the labor market from ADP, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, and state unemployment insurance programs remain quite strong, suggesting continuing gains in jobs in the U.S. economy.
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Auto Sales Fell Slightly in November but Remain at a High Level
Auto sales eased back to 17.5 million in November, the second monthly slowing following a hurricane-related surge to 18.6 million in September. Despite the slowing over the latest two months, auto sales remain at a high level by historical comparison.
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ISM Manufacturing New-Orders Index Hits Highest Level Since 2004
The ISM new-orders index came in at 69.4, up from 64.0 in November, and the 7th month in a row above 60. The strong performance suggests that growth in manufacturing output is likely to accelerate in coming months.
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•
Chicago Business Barometer Rises to Highest Level Since 2011
The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 67.6 in December, the highest level since March 2011. The results of the latest survey suggest continued economic growth for the region.
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•
Consumer Confidence Falls in December as Short-Term Expectations Drop
The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 122.1 in the latest reading, but remains at historically favorable levels, supported by a robust labor market, suggesting support for ongoing economic expansion in the short term.
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•
Third-Quarter Real GDP Rises 3.2 Percent; Profits Hit a Record
Revised estimates show real GDP grew at a 3.2 percent pace in the third quarter while U.S. corporate profits rose to a new record high and core consumer price increases decelerated. Overall, today’s data suggest an economic environment with solid growth and slow price increases that is likely to continue well into 2018.
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•
A Decline in Multifamily Housing Permits Offsets a Gain in Single-Family Permits
Housing starts rose 3.3 percent in November on gains in both the multifamily segment and in the single-family segment. Overall, single-family housing construction continues to rise while the multifamily segment has plateaued.
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•
Strong Retail Sales Gains and Low Initial Claims Point to Robust Growth
Retail sales jumped 0.8 percent in November, the third strong monthly gain in a row. Along with initial claims, today’s data show the economy is gaining momentum, suggesting the outlook remains upbeat.
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•
The Latest Labor Market Indicators Ticked Down but Still Suggest Future Gains
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ticked down slightly in November and total job openings in the United States fell to 5.996 million in October from 6.177 million in September, however both still suggest labor-market strength.
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•
November Employment Report Provides More Support for Continued Economic Expansion
U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 228,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, providing support for consumer spending and continued economic expansion.
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•
Labor Market Indicators Remain Strong Ahead of November Jobs Report
Recent indicators for the labor market from ADP, Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, and state unemployment insurance programs remain quite strong, suggesting continuing gains in jobs in the U.S. economy.
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•
Auto Sales Fell Slightly in November but Remain at a High Level
Auto sales eased back to 17.5 million in November, the second monthly slowing following a hurricane-related surge to 18.6 million in September. Despite the slowing over the latest two months, auto sales remain at a high level by historical comparison.