Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Existing-Home Sales Fall Again
Sales of existing homes fell again in September. The combination of rising home prices and higher interest rates is likely weighing on housing activity, and is likely to restrain activity in the coming months and quarters.
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Falling Housing Permits Suggests a Cautious Outlook for Housing
The housing market appears to be struggling with a combination of elevated home prices and rising interest rates. With interest rates likely to drift even higher over coming months and quarters, the outlook for housing is cautious.
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Labor-Market Outlook Remains Strong as Job Openings Surge
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a surge in job openings in August, to 7.136 million, while private sector job openings totaled 6.464 million. Both are at new all-time highs.
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Florence Hits Jobs Report but Trends Remain Positive
The impact of Hurricane Florence was evident in the September employment report as nonfarm payrolls rose just 134,000. However, the preponderance of data suggests the labor market remains robust and that the economy is likely to grow at a healthy pace.
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ISM Reports Suggest Robust Economic Growth
The latest monthly reports from the Institute for Supply Management show that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace in September. Details in both reports were decisively positive and suggest strong, broad-based growth in the economy.
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Income and Spending Post Solid Gains in August as Price Increases Moderate
Personal income and consumer spending are up 5.3 percent over the past year. Together, these support a positive outlook for the economy with a low probability of recession over the next several months and quarters.
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•
Durable-Goods Orders Jump in August
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.5 percent in August while orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4 percent to a new record. Today’s reports suggest that demand remains strong and that the broader economy is maintaining solid momentum in the second half of 2018.
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Housing Data Remain Soft
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August and are up 12.7 percent from a year ago, however, they are down 11.7 percent from November 2017. Declining affordability suggests that sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
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Manufacturing Surveys Remain Positive
Two surveys on manufacturing showed positive results in September. However significant concerns remain regarding the tight labor market and rising input-cost pressures.
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Housing Permits Fall to the Lowest Level in Two Years
Housing starts rose by 9.2 percent in August. However, housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell in the latest month, hitting the lowest level since August 2016. Combined with rising interest rates and falling affordability, the outlook for housing is deteriorating.
-
•
Existing-Home Sales Fall Again
Sales of existing homes fell again in September. The combination of rising home prices and higher interest rates is likely weighing on housing activity, and is likely to restrain activity in the coming months and quarters.
-
•
Falling Housing Permits Suggests a Cautious Outlook for Housing
The housing market appears to be struggling with a combination of elevated home prices and rising interest rates. With interest rates likely to drift even higher over coming months and quarters, the outlook for housing is cautious.
-
•
Labor-Market Outlook Remains Strong as Job Openings Surge
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a surge in job openings in August, to 7.136 million, while private sector job openings totaled 6.464 million. Both are at new all-time highs.
-
•
Florence Hits Jobs Report but Trends Remain Positive
The impact of Hurricane Florence was evident in the September employment report as nonfarm payrolls rose just 134,000. However, the preponderance of data suggests the labor market remains robust and that the economy is likely to grow at a healthy pace.
-
•
ISM Reports Suggest Robust Economic Growth
The latest monthly reports from the Institute for Supply Management show that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace in September. Details in both reports were decisively positive and suggest strong, broad-based growth in the economy.
-
•
Income and Spending Post Solid Gains in August as Price Increases Moderate
Personal income and consumer spending are up 5.3 percent over the past year. Together, these support a positive outlook for the economy with a low probability of recession over the next several months and quarters.
-
•
Durable-Goods Orders Jump in August
New orders for durable goods jumped 4.5 percent in August while orders excluding aircraft increased 1.4 percent to a new record. Today’s reports suggest that demand remains strong and that the broader economy is maintaining solid momentum in the second half of 2018.
-
•
Housing Data Remain Soft
Sales of new single-family homes rose 3.5 percent in August and are up 12.7 percent from a year ago, however, they are down 11.7 percent from November 2017. Declining affordability suggests that sales are unlikely to move significantly higher in the coming months.
-
•
Manufacturing Surveys Remain Positive
Two surveys on manufacturing showed positive results in September. However significant concerns remain regarding the tight labor market and rising input-cost pressures.
-
•
Housing Permits Fall to the Lowest Level in Two Years
Housing starts rose by 9.2 percent in August. However, housing permits, an indicator of future activity, fell in the latest month, hitting the lowest level since August 2016. Combined with rising interest rates and falling affordability, the outlook for housing is deteriorating.