Robert Hughes
Senior Research Faculty
Robert Hughes joined AIER in 2013 following more than 25 years in economic and financial markets research on Wall Street. Bob was formerly the head of Global Equity Strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, where he developed equity investment strategy combining top-down macro analysis with bottom-up fundamentals. Prior to BBH, Bob was a Senior Equity Strategist for State Street Global Markets, Senior Economic Strategist with Prudential Equity Group and Senior Economist and Financial Markets Analyst for Citicorp Investment Services. Bob has a MA in economics from Fordham University and a BS in business from Lehigh University.
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Updating How We Predict Recessions
This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
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Retail Sales Strengthen at Holiday Time
Today’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department contained more good signs for the holiday shopping season, as consumers focus on small-ticket items.
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•
The Implications of Another Strong Jobs Report
A strong November Employment Report plus upward revisions to the blowout October report suggest the economy has good momentum in the always-important fourth quarter.
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•
Jobs: What One Good Report Means
A blowout October Employment Report suggests the economy has regained momentum just in time for the holiday shopping season. Strong numbers across the board in the report sharply raises the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December. However, one report does not necessarily mean the economy has moved to a significantly stronger growth trend.…
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Mixed Reports May Give Fed (More) Pause
The broadly disappointing September Employment Report continues the recent trend of mixed economic reports but overall suggests the economy continues to grow at a slow to moderate pace.
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•
Data-Dependent Fed Watching Jobs and Autos
The Fed will no doubt be looking carefully at data for August, including the upcoming Employment Situation report, for signs that recent turmoil in the global economy and capital markets may be affecting U.S. consumer or business behavior. Judging by strong auto sales and the continued low level of layoffs, it would appear that the…
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A Stronger Rebound, But Moderate Pace Likely
Today’s Gross Domestic Product report shows a stronger rebound for the U.S. economy in the second quarter, but no major shifts in the recent trends.
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•
Jobs Report Presages an Accelerating Economy
The broad gains in the July Employment Report from the Labor Department this morning suggests the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. We continue to expect the economy to post faster growth in the second half of 2015 following the weak first quarter.
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•
Consumer Spending is Bouncing Back
Data released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce show second quarter real Gross Domestic Product grew 2.3 percent following an upwardly revised first quarter gain of 0.6 percent. Along with today’s first estimate of second quarter GDP, Commerce also released revised estimates of GDP for the past three years.
-
•
Updating How We Predict Recessions
This institute has long been known for its work in identifying turning points in the economy, including predicting recessions. And we have a pretty good track record in that regard since we started studying business cycles in 1953. But such work requires vigilance, and changing with the times as necessary.
-
•
Retail Sales Strengthen at Holiday Time
Today’s retail sales report from the Commerce Department contained more good signs for the holiday shopping season, as consumers focus on small-ticket items.
-
•
The Implications of Another Strong Jobs Report
A strong November Employment Report plus upward revisions to the blowout October report suggest the economy has good momentum in the always-important fourth quarter.
-
•
Jobs: What One Good Report Means
A blowout October Employment Report suggests the economy has regained momentum just in time for the holiday shopping season. Strong numbers across the board in the report sharply raises the likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December. However, one report does not necessarily mean the economy has moved to a significantly stronger growth trend.…
-
•
Mixed Reports May Give Fed (More) Pause
The broadly disappointing September Employment Report continues the recent trend of mixed economic reports but overall suggests the economy continues to grow at a slow to moderate pace.
-
•
Data-Dependent Fed Watching Jobs and Autos
The Fed will no doubt be looking carefully at data for August, including the upcoming Employment Situation report, for signs that recent turmoil in the global economy and capital markets may be affecting U.S. consumer or business behavior. Judging by strong auto sales and the continued low level of layoffs, it would appear that the…
-
•
A Stronger Rebound, But Moderate Pace Likely
Today’s Gross Domestic Product report shows a stronger rebound for the U.S. economy in the second quarter, but no major shifts in the recent trends.
-
•
Jobs Report Presages an Accelerating Economy
The broad gains in the July Employment Report from the Labor Department this morning suggests the economy continues to grow at a moderate pace. We continue to expect the economy to post faster growth in the second half of 2015 following the weak first quarter.
-
•
Consumer Spending is Bouncing Back
Data released today by the U.S. Department of Commerce show second quarter real Gross Domestic Product grew 2.3 percent following an upwardly revised first quarter gain of 0.6 percent. Along with today’s first estimate of second quarter GDP, Commerce also released revised estimates of GDP for the past three years.