Central Banking
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Headline Inflation Surged in March, but Core Remained Muted
March’s inflation spike looks alarming, but it’s driven entirely by energy shocks. Strip that out and the trend looks largely unchanged.
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Redefining Inflation to Obscure Its Origins
By redefining inflation as consumer prices, we distort how we interpret policy, inequality, and markets.
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Congress Is Moving the Goalposts on Fiscal Responsibility
Is targeting three percent of GDP a turning point, or another empty promise?
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April Fools for America First? Higher Prices and New War
The President returned to office on promises to lower costs at home and restore our reputation abroad. Americans got the opposite.
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Could a Rule-Bound Fed Constrain Congressional Spending?
The Fed’s lack of clear rules makes it vulnerable to outside pressure. A commitment to price stability could force Congress to confront its own excesses.
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Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.
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The Fed Sees Higher Inflation Coming — and May Cut Rates Anyway
Inflation is well above two percent, but rate paths haven’t moved. The disconnect suggests a shift in how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate.
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Bigger Isn’t Better: A Case for Downsizing the Federal Reserve
Does the Fed need 24,000 employees? A leaner, more automated institution could reduce costs and improve transparency.
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Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
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Fed Officials Face Diverging Mandates
Evidence suggests that inflation is relatively widespread, job creation has weakened, the Fed will likely hold the policy rate steady.
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•
Headline Inflation Surged in March, but Core Remained Muted
March’s inflation spike looks alarming, but it’s driven entirely by energy shocks. Strip that out and the trend looks largely unchanged.
-
•
Redefining Inflation to Obscure Its Origins
By redefining inflation as consumer prices, we distort how we interpret policy, inequality, and markets.
-
•
Congress Is Moving the Goalposts on Fiscal Responsibility
Is targeting three percent of GDP a turning point, or another empty promise?
-
•
April Fools for America First? Higher Prices and New War
The President returned to office on promises to lower costs at home and restore our reputation abroad. Americans got the opposite.
-
•
Could a Rule-Bound Fed Constrain Congressional Spending?
The Fed’s lack of clear rules makes it vulnerable to outside pressure. A commitment to price stability could force Congress to confront its own excesses.
-
•
Not 2008, But Still Dangerous: Private Credit’s Squeeze
Private credit is emerging as a key force tightening financial conditions. That feedback loop amplifies macro headwinds.
-
•
The Fed Sees Higher Inflation Coming — and May Cut Rates Anyway
Inflation is well above two percent, but rate paths haven’t moved. The disconnect suggests a shift in how much inflation the Fed is willing to tolerate.
-
•
Bigger Isn’t Better: A Case for Downsizing the Federal Reserve
Does the Fed need 24,000 employees? A leaner, more automated institution could reduce costs and improve transparency.
-
•
Monetary Policy Rules Suggest Fed Should Hold Steady in March
The federal funds rate is already lower than levels recommended by several well-known policy guidelines. Recent uncertainty does not justify further easing.
-
•
Fed Officials Face Diverging Mandates
Evidence suggests that inflation is relatively widespread, job creation has weakened, the Fed will likely hold the policy rate steady.